地铁站高密度人群应急疏散动力过程与效能评估模型研究

The method which theory analysis and numerical simulation are combined with experiment will be used to discuss the behavior characteristics and dynamic process of the high-density flow during emergency evacuation in subway stations and then to build an effectiveness evaluation model of emergency evacuation..Firstly, the personnel distribution trend at different times and in different areas of the station will be studied to reveal how the layout, access conditions and external environment of the subway station influence occupants’ route choice behavior and to build a dynamic spatial-temporal model to describe the distribution trend of high-density flow. Secondly, the research will be aimed at discussing the self-organizing feature and distribution law of passenger evacuation under the effect of disasters, population characteristics, evacuation routes, and some relevant haracteristics of space to form a dynamic model of the high-density flow evacuation in subway stations. In addition, the influence mechanism of uncertain dynamic information, environments on the cluster’s behavior pattern and evacuation behaviors of the different crowd will be studied to reveal the mechanism of evacuation guide in coordination with emergency intervention. What’s more, the set of sensitive factors and the composite criterion, both of which may affect evacuation, will be studied to build a relation model among sensitive factors and put forward the calculation method of quantification and an index system of effectiveness evaluation concerning evacuation will be established, based on the evacuation dynamics coupled with statistical theory and the quantification of risk-sensitive factors. Finally, through constructing the effectiveness evaluation model of passenger evacuation, the theoretical basis will be provided for the emergency evacuation in subway.stations with the high-density flow.

项目采用理论分析、数值模拟和实验相结合的方法，针对地铁站高密度人群应急疏散行为特征与动力学过程进行研究，为地铁站人群的安全疏散提供理论基础和数据支持。.研究典型地铁站内不同时域、空域的人群分布特征，建立地铁站高密度人群分布的动态时空分布规律；研究基于地铁站内时空特点及人群特征的疏散关键点容量的新型社会力疏散机制，建立各关键点的局部阻塞特征及阻塞时间模型；研究灾变环境中动态疏散诱导信号对高密度人群群集疏散行为的影响机制，建立基于动态疏导信息的关键点疏散效能模型；研究建立基于地铁站时空特征、高密度人流特征、疏散关键点容量、多信息动态因素和疏散组织的安全风险量化因子集、复合判据及计算模型，获得基于安全风险量化分析的疏散效能评估指标体系，提出基于疏散关键点容量的风险量化的疏散效能评估模型。.研究成果为地铁站高密度人群的应急疏散提供理论基础。

本项目针对地铁站高密度人群应急疏散行为特征与动力学过程进行研究，为地铁站人群的安全疏散提供了理论基础和数据支持。.统计分析了不同时域、空域的人群分布特征，揭示了地铁站疏散节点处（出入口、闸机等）高密度人群分布的动态时空分布规律，获得了高峰期导流栏杆对人员前行的影响机制。提出了基于人群特征（有无行李、疏散响应速率等）的改进型社会力模型，研究了地铁站内不同地点人员疏散至关键点的选择机制，提出了行人疏散多出口选择模型，获得了不同的疏散规则、人员规模等形式和疏散策略下的人员疏散特性。研究了典型T型换乘站台内多线路火灾场景下火灾情况下的烟气分布规律与优化防排烟模式，研究了基于各疏散关键点处可用疏散时间模型，采用综合火灾风险评估方法，评估了不同火源位置、火源功率、排烟模式下的疏散危险度。研究了火灾环境中疏散标识对高密度人群群集疏散行为的影响机制，提出了基于疏散指示标志的敏感度行人分类方法，建立了基于疏导信息和视野半径的多出口选择模型；研究了信号指示灯对于行人疏散的影响，提出了以视野半径为标准的新型疏散标志设计方法。研究了导流护栏对人员疏散的影响机制，获得了疏散通道宽度对人员疏散的影响规律；提出了基于路径截面灾害风险指数、路径截面恐慌风险指数和路径截面踩踏风险指数的改进量化指标与疏散评估模型。研究了地铁站空间结构特征、高密度人流内分布特征、人群特征、疏散关键点容量、多信息动态因素和疏散组织对人群应急疏散行为的综合影响机制，建立了基于安全风险量化分析的疏散效能评估指标体系，提出了基于疏散关键点容量的风险量化的疏散效能评估模型，获得了基于疏散分区的人员疏散方法和优化疏散策略。