变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝特性与应对机制研究

The Urban Storm Flood (USF) has a higher frequency and more influences nature because of global climate change and urbanization. The difficulty of rainstorm forecast and great harmfulness of urban flood disaster make the USF get great attention and wide public concern. It is also the research focus within hydrology and water resource areas. To be based on the past, present and future, the historical change characteristics and potential future trends of the USF are revealed from different scenarios, varying perspectives and different scales. The key driving factors are identified based on the causes of the USF to establish scenarios of the USF and key driving factors. The quantitative projection model is established based on combined scenarios. The entity-relationships deduction scheme of early warning information is presented using scenario simulation. The scenario preplan of the USF is made knowledge visualization and procedure description using knowledge graph. According to the scenario-response mode, the new response mechanisms of the USF, integrating scenario with projection, early warning and preplan are proposed. The mechanisms make the post analysis to beforehand projection, early warning, preplan and active response, which improve the timeliness and effectiveness of the USF response. Integrating scenario analysis both qualitative and quantitative with multiple information technologies meta-synthesis, the research is conducted gradually from characteristic, to the scenarios analysis, and finally, the response of the USF. Thus, it is of great research value to investigate the response mechanism of the USF using scenario analysis, based on the comprehensively analysis of internal spatiotemporal characteristic and external driving factors. The research is beneficial to improve the urban disaster reduction ability, and to reduce disaster loss. It is of crucial significance to carry out this research.

受气候变化和城市化影响，城市暴雨洪涝频发、广发，暴雨难以精准预报、城市洪灾危害巨大，该问题受到高度重视与广泛关注，是水文水资源领域研究重点。立足于历史、现在、未来，从不同情景、多个角度与不同尺度揭示城市暴雨洪涝历史变化特征和未来变化趋势；根据成因确定暴雨洪涝关键驱动因子，构建情景集；建立多情景组合的定量预估模型、基于情景模拟提出“实体-关系”预警信息推演方案、采用知识图实现情景预案知识可视化与流程化描述。按照“情景-应对”模式把情景与预估、预警、预案相关联形成一体化应对新机制；改传统事后分析和被动应对为事前预估、预警、预案及主动响应，提高应对的时效性和有效性。把定性到定量的情景分析与多信息技术综合集成，从特征到情景再到应对，逐步推进，综合考虑内在演变规律和外部驱动因素，基于情景分析的城市暴雨洪涝应对机制有研究价值。通过实践提升城市暴雨洪涝应对水平和防洪减灾能力、降低灾害损失，研究意义重大。

变化环境影响下城市暴雨洪涝频发广发，成因复杂，灾损严重，受到国家和专家学者高度重视，科学认识变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝特性，增强城市防御暴雨洪涝能力，提升城市暴雨洪涝快速应对水平，最大限度降低城市暴雨洪涝灾害。遵循“特征-情景-应对”总体思路，从特性到情景再到应对，将情景分析和综合集成等理论与技术应用到城市暴雨洪涝研究中，通过情景分析、水文模拟、综合集成与组件开发等技术手段，从多个角度、不同情景和不同尺度分析城市暴雨洪涝变化特征，揭示变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝内在演变规律和外部驱动因素。提出集预估、预警和预案为一体的城市暴雨洪涝应对新机制，通过多情景组合的定量预估模型，基于情景模拟的预警信息推演和基于情景重构的预案服务，为变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝提供短期、近实时和实时的响应策略，将传统的城市暴雨洪涝事后分析和被动应对转变为事前预估、预警、预案和主动响应，提高城市暴雨洪涝应对的主动性、时效性和有效性。将传统水文模拟和现代信息技术相结合，以国家中心城市西安市为研究区域进行集成应用研究，设计并开发基于多源信息融合的城市暴雨洪涝监测预警系统，基于SWMM模型开展城市暴雨洪涝情景模拟仿真，研制过程可视的城市暴雨洪涝应急管理平台，提高变化环境下城市暴雨洪涝事件应急响应速度和应急管理水平，为城市暴雨洪涝应对和防洪减灾提供技术支撑和决策支持。项目发表学术论文31篇，其中，SCI/EI论文12篇；申请国家发明专利4项，授权实用新型专利1项，获批计算机软件著作权5项；毕业研究生6名，出站博士后2名，项目组成员2人入选陕西高校青年杰出人才支持计划；参加国内外学术会议13次，邀请国外专家来访2次开展项目合作与交流。完成了研究内容，达成研究目标，项目研究成果可为城市防洪减灾提供理论依据和可供实际操作的应对机制，具有重要的科学意义和应用价值。