考虑网络动态变化的应急避难所选址策略研究

As an extremely important topic in emergency management, emergency shelter location has been cause for concern. The complexity of emergencies and dynamic changes of other factors make the problem more complicated. This project studies the emergency shelter location problem based on dynamic networks. Efficient algorithms and models are designed for different dynamic networks and different objectives. First, we design robust location models to describe the dynamic change process of the stream of human during the evacuation. How to describe the congestion with mathematics is our most concerned content. Second, based on the human moving at different time periods, we further propose location models and algorithms according to the dynamic changes of the steam of human as well as the number of people need to evacuate. In other words, the vertex weight is not known exactly in this part. Third, considering that the safety factor of the roads may change over time after the emergencies, we build location models and design location strategies meeting this dynamic change. It is worth noting that the congestion and the uncertainty of vertex weight are also under consideration in this part. Comparing with actual and simulated cases, we improve the proposed theoretical models, summarize the similarities and differences among all proposed models, this project is supposed to propose emergency shelter location models which are more targeted. The research results will not only provide theory gist for emergency shelter location and network building but also be contribute to the emergency management including emergency evacuation and rescuing.

作为应急管理中的一项重要研究内容，应急避难所选址问题一直备受关注。突发事件自身的不确定性以及应急环境下各类因素的动态变化性使得应急避难所选址问题变得更加复杂。项目从应急环境下的动态变化特征入手，考虑不同的路网结构和优化目标，对应急避难所选址问题展开研究。首先，考虑疏散过程中人流的动态变化，设计可以反映堵塞这一动态现象的避难所选址模型并求解。其次，在考虑人流堵塞的基础上，针对疏散点人数的流动转移特征，建立疏散点人数动态变化的避难所选址模型并设计选址策略。第三，在前面两点研究内容的基础上，进一步考虑突发事件对道路的影响，建立疏散点人数和道路安全系数动态变化的避难所选址模型并给出选址方案。项目将结合实际和仿真分析，完善理论模型，归纳模型的共性与差异，提炼出更具针对性的避难所选址模型。预期结果不仅能为应急避难所选址和路网建设提供理论依据与可行方案，还将完善紧急疏散、应急救援等应急管理体系。

应急避难所选址问题一直是应急管理中的一项重要内容。项目基于突发事件自身的不确定性和应急环境下各类因素的动态变化性，对应急避难所的选址问题进行了研究。首先，基于疏散过程中可能出现的堵塞变化和疏散顶点权重的变化，构建了不同混合目标下的应急避难所选址模型并设计了求解算法。其次，考虑疏散道路情况的变化，建立了混合目标下的应急避难所选址模型并设计了求解策略。接着，考虑疏散临界点允许分流避难，建立了不同网络结构下的应急避难所选址模型并求解。最后，基于新增应急避难所的需求，构建了一般网络图上新增避难所的选址模型并设计了求解算法。相关研究成果不仅能为应急避难所选址和路网建设提供理论依据，对我国应急管理体系的完善也具有一定的意义。