转型期三峡库区生态屏障区土地利用空间冲突特征及内在机理研究

In the background of rapid urbanization and overall transition of the society, the spatial conflict of land use has an impact on the regional sustainable development and security issues gradually. In this case, this topic selected several ecological barrier zones of Three Gorges Reservoir which include the urban-rural transition zone, the water-land transition zone and the farm-forest ecotone as the study case, and regarded the Three Gorges Reservoir project and the immigration of Three Gorges Reservoir as significant nodes of time to discuss the characteristics of the spatial conflict of land use and the internal mechanisms of the ecological barrier zones of Three Gorges Reservoir during the transformation period by utilizing all kinds of methods and models such as geographic information science technology, spatial econometric analysis, systematic dynamics etc. In conclusion, this topic includes the following aspects: 1) finding and exploring the law of evolvement of the spatial conflict of land use of the ecological barrier zones of Three Gorges Reservoir during the transformation period and in the background of the Three Gorges Reservoir project and the immigration of Three Gorges Reservoir, defining the connotation of the spatial conflict of land use, determining the threshold value of the spatial conflict of land use and analyzing the evolvement characteristics and types of the spatial conflict. 2) Revealing and groping for the internal mechanisms and dominant factors of the formation and evolvement of the spatial conflict of land use of the ecological barrier zones of Three Gorges Reservoir. 3) Establishing and probing a critical forecasting model and a new mode of regulating and controlling the optimization path of the spatial conflict of land use of the ecological barrier zones of Three Gorges Reservoir. In other words, this study is an exploration with great theoretic and practical implications which makes the research contents and methods of the spatial conflict of land use more innovative and abundant.

在快速城镇化和社会全面转型背景下土地利用空间冲突已逐步影响到区域可持续发展乃至区域安全的问题，课题选择聚集了城乡过渡区、水陆过渡带和农林交错带的三峡库区生态屏障区为研究案例，运用地理信息科学技术、空间计量分析、系统动力学等方法和模型，选择三峡工程和三峡移民实施过程中的重要时间节点，探讨在转型期三峡库区生态屏障区的土地利用空间冲突特征及内在机理研究：（1）发现和探明三峡库区生态屏障区土地利用空间冲突演变规律和类型；（2）揭示和探求三峡库区生态屏障区土地利用空间冲突形成和演变的内在机理和主导影响因子；（3）构建和探索三峡库区生态屏障区土地利用空间冲突程度和调控优化路径新模式。该研究创新和丰富土地利用空间冲突研究内容和方法，是一项具有重要理论价值和实际应用的探索。

项目选择聚集城乡过渡区、水陆过渡带和农林交错带的三峡库区生态屏障区为研究案例，运用地理信息科学技术、空间计量分析、系统动力学等方法和模型，探讨在转型期研究区的土地利用空间冲突特征及内在机理研究：（1）基于建设空间-农业空间-生态空间的三峡库区（重庆段）生态屏障区土地利用空间 “类型-格局-过程” 冲突演变特征分析。从2000年到2015年土地利用类型冲突演变呈明显空间分异特征。格局冲突演变为建设空间和生态空间破碎度增长快且空间分异的显著特征。过程冲突表现为都市区冲突程度加重而城市发展新区、渝东北（南）过程冲突一般的空间特征。（2）三峡库区（重庆段）耕地转型及影响因素研究。2000-2015年三峡库区（重庆段）的耕地转出接受者以林地为主，转入来源也以林地为主，耕地转型数量整体处于减少状态。在基于地理加权回归模型分析研究区耕地转型的影响因素中发现，同一影响因素在不同区域对耕地转型的作用方向与作用强度不同；发生同一耕地转型特征的不同区域，其影响因素也不一定相同。（3）生态脆弱区生态风险评价研究。通过构建页岩气开采土地损毁生态风险因果链识别井场、运输道路及集输管线等风险源，基于最小阻力模型定量分析土地损毁的生态累积影响；选取了植被覆盖度、生态服务价值及土壤肥力等因子表征区域生态重要性，土壤侵蚀度、石漠化敏感性及水环境敏感性等表征生态脆弱性，综合评价区域生态敏感度，并以此为风险受体，实现涪陵焦石坝页岩气开发区的生态风险评价。