有效风险管控策略对产业安全维护效应研究：基于远景理论的微观分析

With the development of economic globalization and international competition, industrial security has gradually become the core part of national economic security. However, traditional research only emphasizes industrial security from macro-level, regardless of the more specifical micro-category of industrial security. In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky put forward to prospect theory in which effective strategies taken by individuals to cope with external risks (external economic shocks) have a close relationship to wealth scale owned by individuals, current conditions (increase or decrease)of individual wealth, and the relative changes of wealth risks may bring. Based on the theory, our project will take some risk management strategies when facing different external shocks, then we will use a lot of practice data (not experiment simulated data)of Chinese micro-enterprises to make a detailed judgment and analysis of these strategies, and the theory hypothesis that emphasizes risk control strategies taken by micro-enterprises when facing foreign risks can have important effects on industrial security maintenance would be verified in practice. In the end, our project will work out more effective industrial security maintenance strategies based on practical verification results. What's more, the results can make contributions to the sustainable, healthy and stable development of micro-enterprises and China's industrial security, behavior and welfare economics.

产业安全对一国经济的可持续健康发展至关重要，关乎着国家的根本利益。从经济范畴理解的产业安全最为强调的是经济体在面临可能的经济冲击时（特别是较难预见的系统性风险冲击时）抵御风险的能力，因而有效的风险管控机制将对该产业的健康发展非常重要。本项目除沿用以往学者从宏观经济范畴理解的产业安全要素外，还将引入产（行）业内微观企业本身的技术进步，可持续发展水平，员工福利水平等微观因子来解释和测度新产业安全。我们将通过理论与实证方法来研究有效风险管控策略对产业安全维护的效应，所运用的理论基础为远景理论（Daniel Kahneman和Amos Tversky，1979），视角则为企业层面出发的微观研究。涉及企业应对风险的态度及其管控行为，并考察这些行为对宏观调控者的借鉴范畴，目的是总结最优且最低程度浪费公共资源的产业维护政策，以期为相应管理层政策制定提供指导。

产业安全对一国经济的可持续健康至关重要，关乎着国家的根本利益。从经济学范畴理解的产业安全最为强调的是经济体在面临可能的经济冲击时（特别是较难遇见的系统性风险冲击时）抵御风险的能力，因而有效的风险管控机制将对该产业的健康发展非常重要。本项目除沿用以往学者从宏观经济范畴理解的产业安全要素外，还引入产（行）业内微观企业本身的技术进步、可持续发展水平、劳动力水平等微观因子来解释和测度新产业安全。基于国际竞争优势理论、系统性风险理论、远景理论角度对发展中国家的幼稚产业有效保护理论与边际产业转移理论等进行了新视角的解读与拓展。立足开放经济，从理论与实证两个层面对系统性风险与产业安全进行了综合交叉分析。以系统性风险为研究切入点，构建系统性风险指标体系,多维度、多层次的对我国系统性金融风险进行了分析与测度，并深入剖析其风险来源，就系统性风险对产业安全的影响机理与实践关系进行了深入细致、全景式的探讨。立足研究结果，构建系统性风险预警系统，进一步完善我国系统性风险管控机制，以期对于经济开放条件下学界研究同类问题提供一定的理论参考，同时为政府及监管当局采取有效风险管控措施维护金融安全、守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线、从而实现产业安全高效可持续发展的问题提供政策上的依据。