分散决策对梯级多主体电站效益均衡的影响机理

The decentralized decision-making mode of multi-agent cascade hydropower plants causes the uncertainty of their operation strategies and consequently affects the utilization efficiency of hydropower resources significantly. Surrounding this real Engineering problem, this research begins with the analysis of the multi-agent system feature of cascade hydropower plants as a breakthrough point, then the decision-making characteristics and competitive/cooperative relation of different hydropower plants in the process of generation scheduling decision-making process are analyzed to find and quantitatively describe the key factors that affect the process with the adoption of game theory. Dynamic game model of generation scheduling decision-making problem is constructed and the solving algorithm for game equilibriums is also presented afterwards. After that, according to the analysis of the characteristics of the equilibriums, the affecting mechanism of different key factors on the benefits equilibrium is revealed based on which the compensation benefits making method is presented. Finally case study is provided to prove the conclusions. This research will extend the optimal operation theory and method of cascade hydropower energy system and provide theoretical basis for optimal utilization of hydropower resources.

分散决策模式下流域梯级多主体电站发电调度运行方式存在不确定性，继而使流域水能资源难以得到充分利用。围绕这一工程实际问题，本研究以分散决策模式下流域梯级电站的多主体决策特征分析为切入点，采用动态博弈理论，分析发电调度决策过程中梯级多主体电站的竞合关系和对策决策特征，揭示并定量描述影响对策决策过程的关键要素；考虑不同要素对发电调度对策过程的影响，建立动态博弈模型及其均衡求解方法；通过博弈均衡特性分析，揭示分散决策模式下梯级多主体电站效益均衡对调度决策的影响机理，据此提出梯级多主体电站补偿效益制定方法，最后通过典型案例进行验证。研究成果是梯级水电能源系统优化运行理论和方法的扩充和发展，可为梯级多主体电站优化调度决策和流域水能资源高效利用提供理论支撑。

分散决策模式下流域梯级多主体电站发电调度运行方式存在不确定性，继而使流域水能资源难以得到充分利用。围绕这一工程实际问题，项目研究针对分散决策模式下流域梯级电站发电调度的多主体决策过程，采用多主体博弈理论，对比分析了分散决策和统一调度两种模式下梯级电站的竞合关系和决策特征，剖析了决策主体、决策次序、信息条件、策略集合、决策收益和决策均衡等方面的差异，指出影响发电调度决策的主要影响因素包括来水条件、决策信息和效益分配机制，并提出了主要影响因素的建模方法；在此基础上，建立了梯级多主体电站博弈模型，提出了模型求解的差分进化算法；通过博弈均衡特性分析，揭示了分散决策模式下主要影响因素对梯级多主体电站效益均衡的影响机理，推导了信息成本设定的边界条件；基于合作博弈框架研究梯级多主体电站效益补偿机制，构建了基于贡献度的和基于Shapley value 的收益分配策略；典型案例分析验证了项目研究结论。研究成果可为梯级多主体电站优化调度决策和流域水能资源高效利用提供理论支撑。