区域水资源时空演变规律对气候变化和人类活动的响应机理研究-以黑龙江省为例

Water resources in changing environment has become a hot spot in research of hydroscience; climatic change and human activity, as the two significant embodies and components of changing environment, have aroused widespread attention with their effects on space-time evolution of water resources. With Heilongjiang Province as the study object, first, a collection of driving factors is established during the changing of climate and human activity, the change trend, cycle characteristics, mutation point, complexity and spatial distribution of each driving factor are analyzed and diagnosed, and climatic change and future development trend of human activity are predicted. Then, statistical feature parameters of water resources with different scales are calculated, degree of their variation is determined, spatial complexity of water resources with different scales is diagnosed, evolution model of water resources is established based on spatial complexity, and future evolution characteristics of water resources are analyzed. Finally, the key constraint factors of climatic change and human activity are screened, their constraint effects on evolution of water resources are analyzed, its influence coefficient on evolution of water resources are calculated, and the response mechanism of space-time evolution of water resources on climatic change and human activity in revealed. The study result can provide theoretical support for mutation point diagnosis of driving factors in changing environment, parameter calibration of complexity diagnosis method, and the solution of problems such as quantitative characterization of influence degree; it has significant theoretical and practical meaning for efficient utilization and sustainable development of water and soil resources in regional agriculture.

变化环境下的水资源问题已经成为水科学研究的热点，气候变化和人类活动作为变化环境的两个重要体现和组成部分，其对水资源时空演化规律的影响引起了广泛的关注。以黑龙江省为研究对象，首先构建气候变化与人类活动变化过程驱动因子集，分析、诊断各驱动因子变化趋势、周期特征、突变点、复杂性及空间分布，预测气候变化与人类活动未来发展态势。然后计算不同尺度水资源统计特征参数，确定其变异程度，诊断不同尺度水资源空间复杂性，建立基于空间复杂性的水资源演变模型，分析水资源未来演化特征。最后筛选气候变化与人类活动关键约束因子，分析其对水资源演变的约束效应，计算其对水资源演变的影响过程系数，揭示水资源时空演变对气候变化与人类活动的响应机理。研究成果可为变化环境下的驱动因子突变点诊断、复杂性诊断方法参数率定以及影响程度定量表征等问题的解决提供技术理论支撑，对于区域农业水土资源高效利用与可持续发展具有重要理论与现实意义。

本项目针对黑龙江省水资源利用效率低下、水资源空间分布不均、水环境日益恶化、土地荒漠化等问题，针对黑龙江省区域水资源定量测算、综合评价、驱动机制、影响因素、降水量预测等内容进行了研究。以黑龙江省典型流域为例，深入研究区域气候变化与人类活动演变特征及未来发展趋势、区域水资源时空演变规律及未来发展趋势研究和气候变化与人类活动对区域水资源演变的约束效应及影响评估等三方面内容，建立了水资源安全评价指标体系框架，进行了水资源可利用量的合理预测，探究了区域气候变化与人类活动的时空变化规律，明晰了区域气候变化的周期性、突变性以及复杂性，分析了气候变化与人类活动发展过程的影响关系，计算了区域降水量统计特征参数，探明了区域降水量统计参数空间分布特征，确定了统计特征参数变异程度，揭示了区域降水量统计特征参数时空变异规律，建立了不同尺度降水量关系，改进了现有空间复杂性诊断方法，识别了不同尺度区域降水量空间复杂性，明确了黑龙江省年降水量的空间分布，建立了区域降水序列趋势预测模型，揭示了区域降水量空间复杂性变化规律及未来演变特征。建立了区域水资源安全评价体系，分析了区域水资源演变规律，进行了可利用水资源量预测，筛选了人类活动对区域水资源优化的关键约束因子，分析了人类活动对区域水资源优化的约束效应，建立了人类活动对区域水资源优化的评价方法，分析了气候变化、人类活动以及二者协同作用对区域径流量影响过程，预测了气候变化与人类活动未来变化，以及二者对未来径流量的影响，揭示了区域水资源演变对气候变化与人类活动的响应机理。