新疆天山关键地区冰川对气候变化响应机理和模拟预测研究

Glaciers in central Asia, important water resource are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. With about 24000×108 m3 water equivalent, the glaciers in Xinjiang Uyger Autonomous Region in northwestern China possesses the biggest ice volume in China, which plays an extremely important role in both water resource and stabilization of river runoff in this vast arid and semi-arid region. During the past several decades, because of climate warming, the most glaciers in Xinjiang are in a state of accelerating shrinkage, and the impact of the glacier recession on water resource has drawn a wide attention. The aims of this project are to reveal the machanism of glacier retreating, and further to to simulate and project the response of the glacier to climate change in Xinjiang. .The response of glaciers to climate change including two processes. It first appears as change of mass balance, which is immediate and direct response, and secondly the dynamical adjustment of glaciers to their environment is regarded as indirect and lagged response. Therefore, the long term future of glaciers predicting should consider not only the future climatic conditions and their impacts on mass balance of glaciers, but also the dynamic reponse of glaciers. In previous researches several time-extroplated or statistical approaches have been using to estimate future changes of glaciers in China. However, the projection made by those methods over long periods can become misleading because they do not account for the dynamical adjustment of glaciers to their environment. In this project, by integrating all responding physical processes, a deterministic dynamic model coupled with mass balance models will be introduced. It should provide more accurate results. .To obtain multiple parameters of the glacier models is a key for this project. It is proposed to achieve from a reference glacier mornitring network throughout Tian Shan, as well as remote sensing techniques. Operated by Tianshan Glaciological Station, the glaciological observation in this network began in 1959 and includes alpine meteorological and hydrological parameters, glacier topograpy, glacier massbalance, glacier thickness, and glacier surface velocity, etc. They are crucial for glacier modeling study. .

目前由气候变暖引发的中亚干旱地区山地冰川加速消融退缩，可能严重影响到区域水资源和水循环，已成为社会和地球科学领域广泛关注的问题。新疆的冰川储量约为2.4万亿方水当量，居全国第一，冰川融水径流量占地表径流量的25-30%，在水资源构成和河川径流调节方面起着至关重要的作用。由于气候变暖，冰川正处在快速消融减少的进程中。但到目前为止，对冰川及其融水未来时空变化仍然缺乏定量的认识，影响到新疆建设布局和发展模式战略规划。本项目拟以天山冰川站为依托，通过对新疆不同区域参照冰川模拟预测研究，依照参照冰川—同区域冰川尺度转换方案，模拟预估新疆塔里木河流域、天山北麓、东疆吐—哈盆地冰川及其径流变化，为新疆水资源管理和高效利用规划提供科学依据。拟使用的冰川动力学模式方法，学科交叉性强，属于本领域研究的前缘和热点，有较强创新性。模式的参数方案，有赖于长期冰川观测资料积累和项目设定的大量野外冰川学观测、考察。

20世纪以来, 世界上大多数的山岳冰川呈现出退缩状态，并且这一退缩在最近的20年出现了加速趋势。因此，有关冰川加速消融的机理和未来变化趋势方面的研究成为众所关注的热点。然而，无论是通过冰川对气候的响应模式来预测冰川变化，还是从机理上分析冰川加速消融的原因，都需要以长期的冰川物理学观测为基础。新疆的冰川储量约为2.4万亿方水当量，居全国之首，新疆冰川融水径流量占地表径流量的25-30%，在水资源构成和稳定河川径流方面起着至关重要的作用。气候变化引发新疆天山冰川的加速消融退缩，严重影响水资源和水循环，威胁到社会稳定和生态的安全，已成为国内外广泛关注的焦点。本项目针对新疆天山阿克苏河上游、天山北麓、东疆吐—哈盆地几个关键地区的参照冰川，以长期观测为基础，深入开展物理机制和模型模拟预测研究，定量揭示参照冰川及其径流对气候变化的响应过程分析阐述新疆不同地区冰川及其融水未来变化时空格局，为新疆水资源管理和高效利用规划提供科学依据。本项研究在此基金的支持下，历时一年，取得了预期的研究成果。期间出版2部专著，发表研究论文3篇。本项目在研究生培养方面取得丰硕成果，共培养7名研究生。其中1人完成博士阶段的学习，6人完成硕士阶段的学习。目前还有1名博士后在站，3名在读博士和4名在读硕士生。形成了一个擅长野外观测、拼搏在国际研究前缘的青年团队。参加各种国内外学术讨论会十余次。