基于有限理性的不确定均衡策略理论及应用研究：以湘江流域生态治理为例

At present, the situation of water pollution in the river has seriously affected social and economic development. Hunan provincial government has set Xiangjiang protection and governance as one key project to the provincial government. The ecological environment governance of Xiangjiang river involves three aspects of government, enterprise and common people's interests, which is a typical non-cooperative game problem. Because of the uncertainty in the management process, the fuzziness of the information and the limitation in cognitive ability of the decision maker, the classical non-cooperative game theory is limited to field of application. In the premise of “limited rationality”, aim to random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty in the process of game, this project will construct limited rationality non-cooperative uncertain game model. Individual behavior and psychological characteristics and uncertain information are taken into account during the process of the game model reconstruction. Uncertain equilibrium existence and its properties of this new game model are investigated by comprehensively using of behavior decision theory, uncertain theory, optimization theory. The influence mechanism of the limited rational behavior on the uncertain equilibrium is deeply analyzed. Further, theoretical research results are applied to ecological environment governance in Xiangjiang river. And some aimed suggestions for management of Xiangjiang River are provided. These research results of this project will further enrich and develop game theory, and offer a new research approach and methods for game theory. Thus, this project will present an important theoretical significance and application value.

我国流域污染严重影响了社会与经济的发展，湖南省政府已把湘江保护与治理定为省政府的“一号重点工程”。湘江流域生态环境治理涉及到政府、企业和百姓三方面的利益，是一个典型的非合作博弈问题。由于治理过程中的不确定性、信息模糊性及决策者认知能力局限性，使得经典非合作博弈理论的应用受到限制。为此，本项目拟从博弈局中人“有限理性”前提出发，针对博弈中表现出的随机和模糊两类不确定，以构建基于有限理性的非合作不确定博弈模型为主线，把博弈过程中局中人个体行为及心理特征对博弈行为的影响、不确定信息对博弈模型重构的影响纳入到统一的框架加以分析，综合运用行为决策理论、不确定理论、优化理论等对不确定均衡存在性和求解方法进行研究，深入探讨有限理性行为对不确定均衡的影响机理，并将理论研究成果应用于湘江流域生态环境治理。因此，本项目研究成果将进一步丰富和发展博弈论理论体系，拓展其应用范围，具有重要的理论意义和现实应用价值。

随着社会经济的不断发展，由于决策过程决策信息的不完整性、人们主观认识的模糊性、及决策者认知能力的局限性，使得博弈问题变得越来越复杂。基于完全理性假设前提下的非合作博弈理论忽视了局中人的心理认知、个体行为因素以及决策环境的不确定性对均衡策略选择的影响。为此，本项目基于有限理性和不确定性理论视角，以构建复杂不确定环境下有限理性行为非合作博弈的不确定均衡模型为主线，把非合作博弈过程中局中人个体行为及心理特征对博弈行为的影响、博弈环境的不确定性及博弈模型的重构等问题整合到一个统一的框架下，综合运用有限理性行为理论、非可加测度理论、证据理论、不确定性理论，对基于有限理性的非合作博弈均衡策略、基于有限理性的随机非合作博弈均衡策略、基于有限理性的模糊非合作博弈均衡策略、及在湘江生态环境治理和供应链管理决策中的应用等主要内容开展深入研究，深入分析有限理性条件下非合作博弈模型均衡策略及不确定环境下非合作博弈模型不确定均衡策略的存在性及其性质，以及求解方法，讨论有限理性行为对均衡策略选择的影响，突破传统期望效用理论对非合作博弈均衡的制约，揭示有限理性行为对博弈过程的作用机理。研究成果进一步丰富和发展了非合作博弈理体系，拓展其应用范围，为非合作博弈理论与应用研究提供一种新的研究途径和方法，具有重要的理论意义和现实应用价值。在该项目的支持下，项目组成员在国际、国内核心期刊发表49篇学术论文，其中被SCI/SSCI收录39篇。总之，项目进展顺利，经费使用合理，达到了预期的效果。