基于全球价值链知识溢出的中国区域高碳产业低碳化转型路径研究

Low-carbon transformation of regional high-carbon industry is vital for promoting the upgrading of China's economic structure and achieving the goal of carbon emission reduction. In the face of severe "emission reduction dilemma", this project will, from the perspective of global value chain (GVC) knowledge spillovers, explore the transformation path of China's regional high-carbon industry. Firstly, build the model of GVC knowledge spillovers and, with network embedding method, analyze the mode of GVC knowledge spillovers on regional low-carbon transformation of high-carbon industry and its conduction mechanism. Secondly, set up multi-agent evolutionary game model of low-carbon transformation for regional high-carbon industry, analyze the equilibrium conditions and strategies for multi-agent interests, and reveal the internal mechanism of low-carbon transformation for China's regional high-carbon industry. Thirdly, based on the spatial CHD model and the dynamic features of GVC knowledge spillovers, define nonlinear model of low-carbon transformation for regional high-carbon industry, and identify the critical path and core nodes of low-carbon transformation for regional high-carbon industry. Lastly, from the perspective of GVC knowledge spillovers, taking the power sector as an example to perform the empirical test, put forward some incentive strategies of low-carbon transformation for regional high-carbon industry. Taking the characteristics of GVC knowledge spillovers into consideration, based on the dynamic model, the project will explore the optimal path of low-carbon transformation for regional high-carbon industry. This research not only has important theoretical significance for expanding and deepening the research on low-carbon economics but also has important practical value for the low-carbon transformation of China's regional high carbon industry.

区域高碳产业低碳化转型是推动我国经济结构升级并顺利实现碳减排目标的关键。面对严峻的“减排困境”，本项目基于全球价值链（GVC）知识溢出探讨中国区域高碳产业低碳化转型路径。首先，构建GVC知识溢出模型，结合网络嵌入性方法，分析GVC知识溢出对区域高碳产业低碳化转型的作用方式与传导机理。其次，构建区域高碳产业低碳化转型多主体演化博弈模型，分析多主体利益均衡条件及策略选择，揭示我国区域高碳产业低碳化转型的内在机制。再次，结合空间CHD模型与GVC知识溢出特征，构建区域高碳产业低碳化转型的非线性模型，识别高碳产业低碳化转型的关键路径与核心节点。最后，提出GVC知识溢出下区域高碳产业低碳转型激励策略，并以电力行业为例进行实证检验。本项目考虑GVC知识溢出特性，基于动态模型分析区域高碳产业低碳化转型的最优路径，不仅对深化低碳经济研究具有重要的理论意义，且对我国区域高碳产业低碳化转型具有重要的实践价值。

改革开放以来，我国以煤炭为主的化石能源结构和钢铁、冶金、化工、建材等区域重化工高碳产业的迅速发展带来了严重的碳排放问题。日益严重的“减排困境”对当前我国区域高碳产业低碳转型提出了新要求。积极推进节能减排工作不但是推进国家双碳目标早日实现和我国产业转型升级的需要，也是承担《巴黎协定》中最新国际碳减排义务并构建人类命运共同体的体现。本课题研究以此为背景展开。. 本课题运用现代产业经济学、国际贸易学、能源经济学和环境管理等前沿理论，重点就产业碳减排相关问题多次深入具体产业展开调研工作，并在绿色发展理论与创新驱动战略、全球价值链与知识溢出、区域高碳产业低碳化转型等方面收集了大量资料，进行了扎实而系统的研究。项目研究发现：全球价值链嵌入程度会显著促进产业碳生产率，而全球价值链嵌入地位则与我国工业碳生产率呈显著负向关系；全球价值链嵌入不仅直接影响碳生产率，而且通过技术创新等交互效应间接影响碳生产率。另外，全球价值链嵌入对中国碳生产率的影响存在行业异质性，资本密集型行业的价值链嵌入会显著促进中国产业碳生产率。. 在基金资助下，目前项目组在国内外期刊发表论文63篇、会议论文1篇，其中SCI/SSCI论文42篇，国内CSSCI期刊10篇，包含国家自然科学基金委管理学部指定重要期刊论文5篇，顺利完成项目预期目标。项目培养研究生22名（含在读），博士后1名。在制度质量和绿色技术对能源效率的影响、绿色创新和及其国际知识溢出效应、全球价值链对区域产业碳生产率的影响机理与效果等方面达到国内先进或领先水平，部分研究成果具有重要的政策意义。