基于克拉运河的枢纽港竞争与班轮航线设计研究

Currently, the “Kra Canal Plan” dominated by China and Thailand has become one of the hottest international topics. Clearly, the open of the Kra Canal will bring a new opportunity and challenge to liner shipping companies and port operators. By empirically investigating the network of liner ship routes, this project explores the choice of traversing canal or port of call for a containership. A discrete choice model is presented to analyze the impact of Kra Canal on the adjustment of liner ship routes. Then, a mathematical programming model and its solution method are proposed to investigate liner ship route design based on the Kra Canal. Furthermore, a Nash equilibrium model and its solution method is developed to study hub port competition based on the Kra Canal. Finally, a bi-level programming model is proposed to investigate combined hub port competition with liner ship route design, where the upper level model solves hub port competition and the lower level model determines liner ship route design. The research of this project is helpful to promote the theory on liner ship route design, and game behavior between hub ports and liner shipping companies. It also provides a good theoretical basis on decision making for Chinese government, liner shipping companies, and the development and management of hub ports.

当前，由中国和泰国主导的“克拉运河计划”是一个国际热点议题，而克拉运河的开通将为班轮公司或港口的运营与管理带来新的机遇和挑战。本项目拟通过实证调研班轮公司的班轮航线集合，综合分析班轮如何选择运河或港口挂靠的影响因素，并提出离散选择模型，系统分析克拉运河对班轮航线调整的影响；在此基础上，研究基于克拉运河的班轮航线设计问题，提出数学规划模型和高效的求解算法；进一步研究基于克拉运河的枢纽港竞争问题，建立纳什均衡模型，并设计求解算法；最后建立基于克拉运河的枢纽港竞争与班轮航线设计问题的双层规划模型，其中上层模型求解枢纽港竞争，下层模型解决班轮航线设计，并设计高效的启发式算法。本项目的研究为制定科学的班轮航线，并揭示不同枢纽港之间以及枢纽港与班轮公司之间的博弈行为方面奠定一定的理论基础，也为我国政府、班轮公司及枢纽港的规划发展和运营管理方面提供一定的决策支持。

班轮运输网络优化是港航物流规划与管理领域中最重要的关键理论之一，主要围绕港口运营者和班轮公司两大利益主体。本项目以克拉运河对枢纽港和班轮航线的影响为研究切入点，项目组的研究成果侧重研究班轮航线设计、枢纽港选址等问题。提出了考虑空箱调运的班轮航线设计问题，来研究空箱调运和班轮航线设计的集成优化问题；提出了班轮公司空箱共享及互换问题；建立了基于连续优化的全球枢纽港选址问题的两阶段优化模型，克服了大规模选址问题不能有效求解的缺陷；研究基于群落结构的全球枢纽港选址问题，进一步提升了大规模选址问题的求解效率；提出了考虑港口分级的枢纽港选址模型；也研究了内河集装箱枢纽港选址等问题。项目执行过程中，在《Transportation Research Part B》、《Transportation Research Part E》、《Transport Policy》等期刊上发表标注论文10篇，其中SCI源期刊论文7篇，ESCI检索论文1篇，EI检索论文2篇。同时，将研究成果应用于港航物流企业以解决实际问题，包括广东粤电集团和大连中远海运物流有限公司。本项目已取得的研究成果将有助于推动班轮运输网络优化理论的发展，也为提高我国港航物流规划与管理水平奠定良好的理论基础。