北方农牧交错带草原生态补奖对农户行为影响及其长效激励机制研究

The grassland ecological reward and compensation mechanism is an important economic approach for the government to curb the accelerated degradation of natural grassland and to promote the restoration of the ecological system. From the policy complementation to the achievement of the policy goal, the conduction of the peasant household’s behavior is the key point. Based on the theory of mechanism design and incentive compatibility, this project takes the northern farming and animal husbandry ecotone of Ningxia as the research area, uses the quasi-experimental evaluation method to track the policy impact of the grassland ecological reward and compensation mechanism on the peasant household’s planting, breeding substitute behavior and grazing prohibition compliance. Then this project analyzes the changes of the farming structure, the income effect of the peasant household and the ecological outcome caused by the change of the peasant household’s behavior. Furthermore, this project also assesses the policy impact on the means, the compensation standard and the compensation approaches of grassland ecological reward and compensation mechanism, explores the long-term compensation mechanism in this region to realize the ecological improvement, animal husbandry development and peasant’s income incentives. The main innovation points of this project: from the theoretical level, the theory of mechanism design theory and behavior of farmers based on the mechanism of grassland ecological compensation research of breeding alternative behavior, explore for long-term ecological compensation mechanism of farming and animal husbandry in northern China, the generation of long-term incentive compatible mechanism. From the aspect of practice, through tracing and evaluating the policy impact of grassland ecological compensation, this project probes into the ecological compensation policy means and the scientific and normative policy impact evaluation method suitable for the northern farming and animal husbandry.

为遏制天然草原加速退化趋势、促进草原生态修复，草原生态补奖机制是政府实施的重要经济手段。从草原生态补奖政策手段实施到政策目标的实现，关键环节是农户的行为传导。本项目基于机制设计和激励相容理论，以宁夏北方农牧交错带为研究区域，用准实验评估方法通过跟踪评估草原生态补奖对农户种养殖替代行为、禁牧遵从行为的政策影响，评估由于农户行为改变而带来的种养殖结构变化、农户收入效应和生态效应；评估草原生态补奖机制的手段、补偿标准及其补偿方式的政策影响，探索在本区域实现生态改善、牧业发展与农民增收激励相容的长效补偿机制。本项目的主要创新点：从理论上，基于机制设计理论与农户行为理论，研究草原生态补偿对农户种养殖替代行为的影响机理，探求适合北方农牧交错代的长效生态补偿机制、激励相容机制。从实践上，通过跟踪评估草原生态补偿的政策影响，探求适合北方农牧交错带的生态补偿政策手段及其科学规范的政策影响评估方法。

加强草原生态保护是推进生态文明建设进程、落实黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展要求的重要举措。草原生态补奖机制是政府为实现“草原生态环境改善、转变畜牧业发展方式、促进农牧民增收”作出的适时性政策激励手段，但实现政策激励目标的关键在于农户行为传导。基于政策手段—农户行为—政策目标实现的理论基础，项目研究从农户行为视角出发，深入剖析草原生态补奖中的关键政策手段，此研究对于完善草原生态补奖长效激励机制具有重要意义。. 根据宁夏退牧还草典型工程区的农户调查数据，在重点研究舍饲棚圈、人工饲草项目的基础上，项目主要围绕草原生态补奖对农户行为、农户收入、草原生态等方面的影响展开政策激励效果评估。研究发现：第一，草原禁牧围栏破坏率高，农户偷牧及其他草原违法行为较严重。总体看来，宁夏退牧还草工程区农户禁牧遵从度较低；第二，人工饲草项目对增加羊只养殖和饲草种植面积的激励作用显著，舍饲棚圈项目虽促进人工饲草地种植面积增加，但对扩大羊只养殖规模的效果不明显。草原生态补奖项目也造成农户缺粮和种植结构单一等问题；第三，草原生态补奖与农户增收之间并未实现激励相容。人工饲草项目使农户由种粮改种草，导致种植业收入和总收入有所降低，舍饲棚圈项目对农户扩大养殖规模以及促进农户增收的激励效果不明显。在外出务工方面，草原生态补奖政策的实施并未导致农户外出务工人数的减少，对农户外出务工收入的影响并不显著。相比于单一政策，人工饲草和舍饲棚圈对农户总收入和种植业收入的联合作用效果更为显著；第四，草原生态补奖有助于改善草原生态环境，但暂未增加农户收入。草原生态补奖通过影响农户的粮食耕种面积和养殖规模影响农户收入，人工饲草项目减少了农户的粮食耕种面积，舍饲棚圈项目降低了部分农户的养殖规模。. 结合上述研究结果，完善草原生态补奖长效激励机制应增强草原监控力度、结合机会成本分类补奖、引导养殖规模化、动态评估草原生态补奖对农户生计的影响、健全草原监督执法体系。