气候变化下入侵植物紫茎泽兰时空分布格局的预测

Biological invasions caused by Ageratina adenophora not only lead to serious economic losses and biodiversity reduction, but also threat to human and animal health. Research on the spatial expansion trend of A. adenophora under the climate changes, is very important to make a reasonable assessment of its harm and to take accurate prevention and control measures timely in the future. In this project we will 1) analysis the geographic and surface climate factors significantly affecting the current distribution of A. adenophora ; 2) use the regional climate model PRECIS to simulate the climate changes from 2001 to 2100 in mainland China according to the A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios described by the IPCC AR4 report; 3) predict the spatial and temporal patterns of A. adenophora distribution under the climate changes by different ecological models such as CLIMEX, GARP and Support Vector Machine(SVM) and filter out the optimum potential distribution in 4 periods from 2001 to 2100; 4) study the breeding characteristic and phenological changes of different geographical populations of A. adenophorum responding to climate changes through simulated warming experiments in the field. The completing of this proposed project will contribute to making the accurate assessment of the ecological and economic impacts of A. adenophora, and the prevention and management of invasive plants under the global climate change.

重大入侵杂草紫茎泽兰较强的温度适应性使得温度对其地理分布的限制作用逐渐削弱，并有进一步向较为寒冷地区扩张的趋势。研究未来气候变化下紫茎泽兰的时空分布格局对局部地区拦截和控制紫茎泽兰的蔓延与危害具有重要意义。本项目重点分析限制紫茎泽兰目前地理分布的关键地面气候因子和地理要素；以区域气候模式PRECIS模拟政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）AR4报告中A1FI、A2、B1和B2等不同排放情景下我国大陆地区2001-2100年不同时段的气候变化数据为基础，利用不同适生性分布模型（CLIMEX/GARP）和支持向量机（SVM）算法预测分析气候变化下紫茎泽兰分布时空变化格局，通过模型结果比较筛选出未来不同年代紫茎泽兰的最适潜在分布区；通过野外增温试验模拟不同地理种群紫茎泽兰的繁殖特性和物候期对气候变化的响应。研究结果为合理评估气候变化下紫茎泽兰生态经济影响和及时准确地采取防控措施提供科学依据。