规模化水-风-光互补运行对流域水资源配置影响及适应性调控研究

In recent years, China has planned to construct ultra-large-scale multi-energy complementary bases with hydro-wind-solar power, such as the upper reaches of the Yellow River and the Yalong River. Integration of such large-scale wind and solar energy will change the process of runoff distribution and cause changes in the allocation of water resources in the river basin, but its impact mechanism has not been studied in depth. Therefore, the project aims to study on the influence and adaptive regulation of large-scale multi-energy integrative operation with hydro-wind-solar power on allocation of water resources. Multi-energy complementary base and cascade reservoirs of upstream of the Yellow River are selected as the case study. The data depth mining and associated identification methods are used to establish multi-scale complementary correlations between wind and solar energy and reservoir discharge. A performance evaluation model based on comprehensive utilization is established and used to assess the multi-scale impact of wind and solar integration on regulation performance of Longyangxia Reservoir. Then a water resource impact assessment model is proposed to evaluate the long-term effects of reservoir variables and discharge redistribution of Longyangxia Reservoir on water resources allocation. By clarifying the relationship between integrated scale and water resource allocation capacity, the multiple time scale impact mechanism of multi-energy integration on water resources allocation in Long-Liu interval reservoirs is revealed. The project also proposes adaptive control strategies for water resources under changing conditions, which provides important scientific basis for revealing the mutual-feedback mechanism and practical engineering decision-making of the basin's energy-water system.

近年来我国规划建设黄河上游、雅砻江等超大规模水-风-光多能互补基地。规模化风、光能源接入会改变径流分配过程，引起流域水资源调配性能变化，但其影响机制尚未深入研究。因此，本项目以黄河上游多能互补基地及龙-刘区间梯级库群为研究对象，开展“规模化水-风-光互补运行对流域水资源配置影响及适应性调控研究”。项目采用数据深度挖掘及关联识别方法，建立风、光能源与水库径流（水能）的多尺度互补关联；建立基于综合利用的水库调度性能评价模型，多层次评价风、光能源接入对龙羊峡水库调蓄性能多尺度影响；构建基于可供水量优化配置的水资源影响评价模型，评估龙羊峡水库蓄变量和下泄流量再分配对流域水资源配置功能的长期影响，并明确互补能源规模与下游水资源调配能力的关系，揭示多能互补运行对龙-刘区间水资源配置多时间尺度影响机制；提出变化条件下流域水资源适应性调控策略，为揭示流域能-水系统的互馈机制和实际工程决策提供重要科学依据。

近年来我国建设黄河上游、雅砻江等超大规模水-风-光多能互补基地。规模化风、光能源接入会改变径流分配过程，引起流域水资源调配性能变化，但其影响机制尚不明确。本研究以青海上游千万千瓦级水-光-风多能互补基地为实例，开展风光能源与流域径流互补关系研究、规模化水-风-光互补运行对水库调度性能影响及适应性调控策略研究等工作。本研究的主要内容及成果包括：（1）在收集研究区气象、水文、出力等多类型数据的基础上，计算了各能源出力过程，分析了不同时间尺度的能源特性及各类能源的互补关系。研究表明：不同能源类型具有显著互补特性，当光、风装机容量配比接近2:1时，光风自然互补抑制功率波动的效果相对最佳。当光、风装机配置固定的情况下，水电站的互补保证率随流量增大而增加。（2）基于水光互补关系，探究了水光互补条件下龙羊峡水库出库流量过程的变化特性，对比分析了水光互补前后龙羊峡日出力的波动性、日发电量以及出力的时间特性等方面的差异。通过K-means聚类模型计算得到水光互补后龙羊峡水电站5类典型日出库流量过程，并利用曲线特征值揭示了水光互补对龙羊峡水库日尺度出库流量的影响程度及影响机制。（3）提出了多能互补模式下龙羊峡下游梯级水库的适应性调度策略。本项目成果可为流域多类型能源、资源协调开发和高效利用提供理论基础和技术支撑。