中国农地金融发展的机制、效应与政策优化——基于准自然实验的追踪研究

Rural land property right and mortgage system (RLPRMS) reform has always been controversial in the developing world. And the contradictions between the theoretical expectation and empirical studies about the credit market effects of rural land system reforming and continuous arguments between existing literatures both attract us to make further longitudinal study on this important area. The objective of the project is to construct a theoretical framework which describes the interactions between rural land and credit markets under the context of rural land system reforming in China. And the research content is organized as follows: on the one hand, evaluating the impacts of rural land reforming on the demand, supply and equilibrium of rural financial market to clarify the generation mechanisms of the development of rural land finance. On the other hand, estimating whether and how the rural land finance can further affect the rural land transfer and investment to reveal the rural land allocation effects of rural land finance. The innovation of the empirical method is treating some area involved in the RLPRMS pilot reform as quasi-experiment and employing longitudinal study and some econometric models after matching comparable treatment and control groups to get unbiased estimator of the mechanism and effects of rural land finance. The research of this project can not only terminate the existing arguments, but also improve and develop the existing rural land finance theory. In additional, the research can provide important references and recommendations to central and local governments on policies optimization of rural land finance as well.

农地产权和抵押制度改革一直颇具争议，国内外文献关于农地制度改革的金融市场效应在理论预期和经验结果之间的背离以及持续的争论更是引发我们长期关注和追踪研究。本项目旨在构建契合我国农地制度改革特征并刻画农地市场和信贷市场相互关联和作用的理论分析框架。研究内容围绕农地制度和农村金融市场的相互关系展开：一方面，实证评估农地制度改革对农村金融市场供需和均衡的影响及其作用机制，厘清农地金融发展的生成机制；另一方面，实证检验信贷约束缓解和农地金融发展是否及如何进一步反作用于农地流转和农地投资，揭示农地金融发展的农地配置效应。研究方法的创新之处在于将部分地区率先开展的农地产权和抵押制度改革试点视作近似外生的准自然实验，构造可匹配的实验组和控制组并进行追踪调查和计量研究，准确无偏地估计出农地金融发展的机制和效应。本项目在回答现有争论的同时，不仅完善和发展农地金融理论，并能为政府优化农地金融发展政策提供参考。

本项目基于当前我国新一轮农地制度改革的特殊阶段，构建农村土地和农村信贷市场关联性和相互作用的理论分析框架，设计“准自然实验”的识别机制并搜集农地制度改革（非）实验区微观追踪调查数据，评估农地产权制度改革对农户生产要素配置行为特别是金融市场参与的影响和作用机制，进一步考察检验信贷约束放松和农地金融发展对农业经营主体农地流转、农地投资等农地配置行为以及农业绩效、农户福利的影响机制和效应。本项目的核心内容、重要结果和科学意义主要包括：基于“准自然实验”框架，实证分析农地制度改革对农户信贷、土地等要素配置及生产经营行为的影响：1、农地确权和农地流转显著提高了农户的名义信贷需求，但由于受到现阶段农地抵押法律的限制和金融机构的信贷配给，43.24%具有名义信贷需求的农户依然无法有效表达其信贷需求，仅能将名义信贷需求转化为潜在信贷需求。2、现阶段仅单方面推进农地确权或允许农地抵押并不能改善农户正规信贷获得，农地产权制度改革正的信贷获得效应的产生依赖于农地确权和农地抵押这两个前提条件同时得到满足；3、农地确权对不同农户家庭信贷行为的影响具有异质性。对于经济状况高于平均水平的家庭，正规信贷的可获得性由于农地确权而得到改善。对于经济状况低于平均水平的家庭而言，农地确权使得此类农户对非正规信贷的依赖有所减少；4、在现阶段农村地区，仍然有相当比例的农业经营主体遭受着由正规信贷部分施加的信贷配给，对农户特别是规模经营主体的农业生产效率产生显著不利影响。在中国特殊的农地产权制度下，扩大经营规模对单位产量成本和单位土地面积产量的影响受到信贷市场不完善的制约：一方面，对于受到信贷配给的经营主体，其单位产量成本伴随生产经营规模的扩大而增加，而未受到信贷配给的经营主体则能够进行有效的成本控制；另一方面，由于受到信贷配给，扩大经营规模会降低经营主体的亩均投入强度，进而降低单位土地面积产量。