异质企业框架下贸易自由化与资源再配置：理论模型与中国经验

After the worldwide financial crisis, the recovery of the global economy remains slow. Major developed economies differ in their pace of recovery. And newly arising economies are generally slowing down in their growth. At the same time, China’s economy entered the state of “new normal.” To deal with international and domestic challenges, the Chinese government has started forming a new, more proactive trade policy, it includes the introduction of “One Belt, One Road”, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the establishment of the free-trade zone etc. This further opening-up promotes the adjustment of the economic structure and also the transformation and upgrading of Chinese enterprises. Even though the trade liberalization and resources reallocation have been studied separately in the literature, the study that analyzes the effect of trade liberalization on resources reallocation is scarce. This project tries to fill this void. The purpose of this project is to study the effect of trade liberalization on the resources reallocation and provide policy advice to the governments. It is important not only to know the magnitude of this effect but also to find out the possible channels through which the trade liberalization may affect resources reallocation. This project is designed to study these, and provide the policy suggestions for China’s industrial transformation and upgrading.

当前全球经济格局深刻调整，贸易保护主义纷纷抬头，我国经济发展也在30多年的高速增长之后步入新常态。中央审时度势提出的“一带一路”重大战略，对于我国谋划发展新格局、优化发展内外部环境等具有重要作用。如何借助新一轮的贸易自由化，加速产业结构调整，实现资源的优化配置，对推动我国经济持续健康发展无疑具有十分重要的现实意义。本课题基于前沿的贸易理论与计量经济学方法，在异质企业框架下，系统地分析了贸易自由化对资源再配置的影响，不但对影响程度进行了准确的估计，而且对影响渠道进行了深入的探讨。本课题不仅填补了这一领域在理论上的空白，深化了对贸易自由化的贸易福利的认识，还为我国如何利用贸易自由化实现资源的优化配置提供了微观层面的经验事实，这也为政府贸易政策的调整提供了科学的决策依据。

当前世界经济整体仍存在很大的不确定性。世界贸易格局也呈现复杂化的特征。面对错综复杂的国内外环境, 如何适应和引领经济新常态，就需要进一步研究如何利用贸易自由化来推动我国资源的优化配置并促进经济转型升级。本课题通过建立理论模型，探究贸易自由化对资源再配置的理论机制。再通过地区、行业和企业层面数据，揭示贸易自由化对资源再配置的作用机制，定量识别贸易自由化对资源再配置的影响，最终为政府有效配置资源、促进经济增长和产业转型升级提供决策依据和政策建议。主要得到以下几个方面的结论：第一，在异质性厂商的情况下，本国资源配置扭曲程度的下降也是贸易自由化带来的一种重要的福利收益。第二，受贸易自由化带来的关税削减冲击更大的城市，其国有企业的总产出和总员工占比也下降更多。造成这一影响的主要来源渠道是来自广义边际和对隶属于市级及以下国有企业的影响。第三，更稳定的贸易政策能提升了劳动者的工资议价能力，促进劳动力的优化配置。本课题的研究为我们理解新常态下所存在的一些重大问题提供了来自于微观层面的经验事实，为通过推动国内资源的优化配置，促进产业的转型升级提供了应用视角。