新型舰船装备备件需求预测及配置优化方法研究

spare parts are important material resources which ensure equipment can be good. The project will be equipped with spare support from the use of stage extends to the design stage, first of all, to carry out the equipment aided design of spare parts demand forecast model; then, to carry out research on Optimization method for spare parts Allocation Oriented tasks. Considering the normal life-limited parts, exponential life-limited parts and Weibull life-limited parts, the approximate exponential life distribution models is established for different distribution life-limited parts, and the method of forecasting the spare parts demand for the support aided design of ship equipment is developed. The multi level equipment instantaneous availability model under the multi level guarantee mode during the task period is established, and the multi level equipment spare parts support key technology is broken through in the unsteady state system. In order to develop the optimization configuration method of ship equipment spare parts under complex tasks，based on the relationship of equipment tasks, the warship equipment readiness model is established. It is expected that the research results can effectively improve the effectiveness of equipment support, and provide theoretical method for solving the problems of new ship equipment spare parts support.

备件是保证装备完好性的重要物质资源。针对新型舰船装备任务关联性强、装备部件寿命分布复杂的特点，本项目将装备备件保障从使用阶段延伸至设计阶段，开展面向装备辅助设计的备件需求预测模型研究和面向任务的装备备件配置优化方法研究。综合考虑正态型有寿件、指数型有寿件、Weibull型有寿件，建立不同分布类型有寿件的近似指数寿命分布模型，发展面向舰船装备保障性辅助设计的备件需求预测方法；建立任务期间多级保障模式下多层级装备瞬时可用度模型，突破非稳态系统多层级装备备件保障关键技术；基于复杂任务下的装备任务关联关系，建立基于战备完好性的备件配置优化模型，发展复杂任务下的基于战备完好性的舰船装备备件优化配置方法。预期研究结果能够有效提高装备保障效益，为解决新型舰船装备备件保障问题提供理论方法。

备件是装备保障最重要的资源之一。针对有寿件备件需求确定方法不够完善、非稳态系统下多层级装备备件保障模型粗略复杂、基于装备战备完好性为指标的备件配置方法较少，无法满足新型舰船装备和新作战样式下备件保障所需技术的特点，为完善舰船装备不同使用寿命特点部件的备件需求预测技术、提高任务期间舰船装备备件保障方案的科学性和精准性，开展了以下研究：首先，以正态型、Weibull型等几种常见有寿件为对象，通过仿真拟合的方式，以部件平均寿命为依据，将不同寿命分布类型的有寿件转化成对应的无寿件，再将不同寿命分布类型无寿件转化成指数型无寿件，从而将正态型、Weibull型等有寿件备件保障问题转化为指数型无寿件备件保障问题；其次，针对传统动态palm定理无法扩展到任意备件层级的问题，基于指数分布“无记忆”特征，综合考虑备件修理时间、备件补给时间等备件供应因素，建立任务期间多级保障模式下多层级装备瞬时可用度模型；然后，建立装备任务关联模型，以装备瞬时可用度作为装备战备完好性评估指标及优化目标，采用分阶段分层边际优化算法，建立了舰艇装备备件配置优化模型。以上模型通过了基于备件保障流程的仿真模型或已有文献方法进行了验证，两者结果较为一致。项目研究进一步完善了舰船装备备件保障理论，可为舰船装备备件配置提供决策支持。