考虑双网级联失效的复杂大电网ICS可靠性研究

Traditional power grid evolves towards complex power grid gradually based on the 3S (EPS, Electric Power System; ICS,Information and Communication System;MCS,Monitoring and Control System).The theory of the complex network is introduced into large power grid and characteristic of electric applications transmitted by ICS are involved for obtaining the traffic distribution attribution which is running on electric data communication network. Correlation between ICS and EPS is proposed, to obtain the coupling network model for further analyzing reliability of complex network. Also, put forward hierarchy coupling network model based on complex networks, construct the reliability network model based on coupling network and the model of cascading failure between ICS network and power grid. The goal is to improve the security and reliability of physical network of power grid. In concert with ICS and EPS from the dependency of topology between ICS and EPS network, simulate to architect the coupling model and failure awareness algorithm.Reliability model is based on ICS network and EPS grid layer, and the critical point is how to built reliability physical network model to simulate the model from the view of topology connection between ICS and EPS. On the whole, the research items include analyzing power ICS business characteristics influence on coupling network model on complex large power grid, structuring ICS and EPS coupling network utilizing complex networks theories, analyzing correlation of failure between ICS and EPS system, coming up with failure awareness and reliability evaluation algorithm apply to complex power grid. The proposal provides theoretical support for reliability influence between EPS and ICS network in the environment of complex large power grid.

传统电网逐步发展为以EPS、ICS、MCS为基础构建的复杂大电网。项目拟从复杂网络角度入手，研究电力ICS与EPS双网耦合可靠性评测模型。考虑复杂大电网业务特性、电力ICS系统与电网间的网络连接关系、业务关联状态等内容建立双网耦合关联关系，提出基于复杂网络的分层耦合模型，并建立基于耦合网络的可靠性评测综合分析模型；构建ICS与电网间的失效级联模型，分析ICS故障引起级联失效的影响深度。重点解决如何从ICS与电网结构的相关性出发，构建符合ICS与EPS双网耦合模型的可靠性评测算法，对可靠性耦合模型及相关算法的进行仿真实验。研究内容包括：复杂大电网中的电力ICS业务风险对可靠性的影响，基于复杂网络的ICS与EPS的双网耦合可靠性模型，分析ICS与EPS系统的级联失效模型及耦合网络元件失效后可靠性研究，提出适用于复杂大电网ICS节点重要性和网络可靠性评测算法，从而分析ICS失效对电网可靠性影响。

本项目从复杂网络理论研究着手，在耦合网络基础上研究考虑负载特性的双网耦合级联故障模型，从而研究ICS系统引发电力系统级联失效机理并提出耦合网络的可靠性评测，进一步在可靠性评估算法基础上对信息通信网络进行结构优化，使得ICS系统面对电力数据业务膨胀和风险性的增加而具备更大的承载能力。项目研究电力信息通信网络对电网业务的支撑性，电力网络和通信网络就是典型的双层耦合网络，电力网络的正常运行需要通信网络来传送监测控制等信息，同时通信网络设备需要电力网络为其提供电力支持。研究双网耦合模型中的节点失效由于节点间的关系，以及节点负载、节点度和介数的不同会造成的级联故障影响深度不同，而对耦合网络模型下的关键节点的识别是解决重要节点级联失效后的可靠性评估的关键问题。从双网风险关联关系上建立EPS与ICS耦合网络的级联失效模型，进而研究网络元件失效后的网络动态行为特性及其故障级联发生和发展机理。. 项目从双网风险关联关系上建立EPS与ICS耦合网络的级联失效模型，进而分析网络元件失效后的网络动态行为特性及其故障级联发生和发展机理，具体成果包括：研究电力ICS系统对电网运行的信息传输与支撑技术，建立复杂大电网中EPS电网与电力信息通信网络的双网耦合关系，提出了基于电力-信息层级结构的节点重要性分析方法，提出了一种基于DWS网络架构的电力通信网抗毁性分析方法；并对电力-信息相依网络中基于失效传播的网络抗毁性进行了分析；引入最短路径数对级联失效的影响，提出了一种基于最短路径长度和最短路径数的级联失效反馈缓解策略；提出了抵御级联失效的复杂网络反馈保护模型，从而减少网络发生级联失效的可能，提高网络的抗毁性。信息流与能量流之间相互控制、相互影响的关系，使得电力ICS系统与电网的联系具有复杂的耦合特性，项目的研究探索了双网间的支撑、影响和耦合关系，从而提升电力系统中复杂双重耦合网络的抗毁性和网络生存性。