双台风相互作用对中国极端降水的影响

Binary tropical cyclone (BTC) interaction is one of the important cases for the formation of TC extreme precipitation. On the issue “impacts of binary tropical cyclones on extreme precipitations over mainland of China”, its current fruits focus on studying individual cases of binary tropical cyclones, which shows lack of studies on characteristics of binary tropical cyclone interaction activities over China offshore, especially systematic study on impacts of binary tropical cyclone interaction on extreme precipitations over mainland of China that should be strengthened..Focusing on above scientific issue, this project will carry out researches in the future in the following four aspects: .First, identifying TC precipitation over mainland of China cased by binary tropical cyclone interaction. This issue needs to deal with key technologies on objectively identifying binary tropical cyclone interaction and TC precipitation of binary tropical cyclones..Second, studies on characteristics of binary tropical cyclone interaction activities over China offshore and the BTC extreme precipitations over mainland of China..Third, to identify 1-2 typical areas and carry out diagnoses on cases of BTC extreme precipitations. .Fourth, for a possible mechanism of BTC extreme precipitations, a suitable numerical test scheme for the WRF model will be carefully designed, and then a corresponding simulation study will be carried out..The research results of this project -- dynamics interpretations for the causes of BTC extreme precipitations over the typical areas -- will provide a scientific basis for the strong TC torrential rain forecast, so as to contribute to the prevention of TC torrential rain disaster.

双台风（相互）作用是形成TC极端降水的重要原因之一。就双台风作用对中国降水影响问题而言，目前主要只有一些个例研究，十分缺乏针对中国近海双台风作用活动规律的研究，特别是双台风作用对中国极端降水影响的系统性研究亟待加强。本项目围绕上述科学问题，拟开展以下研究：一是双台风作用影响中国降水的判识，涉及双台风作用客观识别和双台风影响中国降水客观识别的关键技术；二是中国近海双台风作用活动规律及其陆上TC极端降水特征研究；三是分析确定1-2个典型区域，并开展双台风作用下TC极端降水成因的诊断；四是针对可能的成因，利用WRF 模式，设计合适的数值试验方案，开展相应数值模拟研究。本项目研究成果 -- 典型区域双台风作用下TC极端降水的主要成因及可能物理过程的动力学解释 -- 将直接为强 TC 暴雨预报提供科学依据，从而有助于防御 TC 暴雨灾害。

经过四年努力，项目取得了四方面成果：（1）开展双台风活动客观定义标准研究，提出了西北太平洋双台风活动客观定义标准；（2）研究给出西北太平洋和影响中国的双台风活动气候特征；（3）围绕中国双台风极端降水研究，识别出三个极端降水典型区域，并初步揭示珠三角典型区域双台风极端降水形成机理；（4）在登陆台风关键区极端降水机理和关键预报技术研究方面进行了有益探索并取得进展。从定量指标角度，发表了研究论文32篇，其中SCI论文13篇；获得发明专利1项，在台风研究方向培养了10名研究生（2名博士+8名硕士）。.总体上，在成果内容及定量指标上，项目均超额完成了既定目标，特别是在登陆台风关键区极端降水机理和关键预报技术研究方面的探索研究及进展为进一步深入该领域的研究奠定了良好基础。