多元经营主体格局下耕地利用集约化与规模化的耦合机理研究：以山东省典型村庄和农户问卷调查为例

At present, a great deal of research has been conducted to cultivated land use intensification and scale management of cultivated land. However, what is the relationship between cultivated land use intensification and scale management? The coupling relationship between cultivated land use scale and intensification still did not get enough attention with emerging diversified operation entities. The project based on the microscopic scale of rural household farmers, which is to reveal the coupling mechanism of the cultivated land use intensification and scale management under the background of diverse new business entities, such as the family farm, professional investors, farmers cooperatives, agricultural enterprises and general rural households etc. The goal of the project is to explore the coupling process, mutual feedback mechanism, structure and regional difference, the coupling model and the way. The method of getting the data is to combining statistics and questionnaire survey. The sampling investigation, econometric analysis and evolution economics thinking method are integrated. Based on the above foundations, we build the conceptual analysis framework of micro scale under the fusion of diverse new business entities. The project focuses on analyzing the scale and intensive use decision-making mechanism and the coupling relationship between the different operators, and carries out the empirical test with peasant household panel data getting through the two tracks. On this basis, the project puts forward the coupling model and control measures of the coordinated development of scale and intensifation to combine with the advance situation of agricultural modernization and the specific requirements of the transformation of the mode of agricultural development, which provides theoretical support and scientific basis for cultivated land use optimization and the relevant policy perfection.

目前，关于耕地集约利用、农地规模经营等研究已较多，但集约化与规模化的关系是怎样的？构建新型农业经营体系进程中耕地利用集约化与规模化的相互影响仍未得到足够关注。本项目基于农户微观尺度，以揭示传统小农户、家庭农场、专业大户、农民合作社、农业企业等多元经营主体格局下耕地利用集约化与规模化的耦合机理为核心，以探究微观耦合过程、互馈机制、结构与区域差异、协同模式及调控措施为目标，采用统计资料和问卷调查相结合获取数据，集成抽样调查、计量经济分析和演化经济学思维方法，构建多元经营主体格局下微观尺度的耦合响应理论分析框架；重点分析不同经营主体的集约化、规模化决策行为机理、耦合与响应机制，并通过两次跟踪调查获取农户面板数据开展实证检验；在此基础上，结合转变农业发展方式、推进农业现代化的具体要求提出集约化与规模化协同发展的耦合模式与调控措施，为优化耕地利用模式、完善相关政策提供科学依据。

目前，国内外已有较多关于农地规模经营、耕地集约利用的科学研究，耕地利用集约化与规模化的相互作用、相互关系及相互影响引起广泛关注。随着资源约束趋紧，耕地利用问题成为统筹协调新型农业经营主体、科学塑造新型农业经营体系、助推农业现代化发展必须关注的核心问题之一。本项目基于农户微观尺度，采用统计资料和问卷调查相结合获取数据，集成抽样调查、计量经济分析和演化经济学思维方法，构建多元经营主体格局下微观尺度的耦合响应理论分析框架；重点分析不同经营主体的集约化、规模化决策行为机理、耦合与响应机制，并通过两次跟踪调查获取农户面板数据开展实证检验；在此基础上，结合转变农业发展方式、推进农业现代化的具体要求提出集约化与规模化协同发展的耦合模式与调控措施，可为优化耕地利用模式、完善相关政策提供科学依据。主要成果包括：①以经营主体、投入要素、产出效应、地域差异为具体切入点，明确耕地利用集约化与规模化耦合响应分析的基本尺度、层次体系，形成耦合机理研究的分析框架；②剖析多元经营主体对集约化、规模化的认知及其行为响应差异，析出影响经营主体推动集约化、规模化的关键因素及其作用机理；③基于社会认知理论与计划行为理论构建分析框架，采用山东省五莲、东平和垦利等三县（区）的379份农户调查问卷数据，综合运用主成分分析法、Heckman二阶段模型和比较分析法，分析了农户规模经营意愿与行为的主要影响因素及其作用机制与差异；④以山东省17地市共146个村庄的502份农户调查问卷为研究样本，综合考虑山东省耕地利用与农业发展概况，选取小麦和玉米两种主要粮食作物为研究对象，明确了农户视角下耕地集约化对规模化的反馈机制；⑤综合评判不同经营规模下的耕地集约利用水平，依据农户投入和产出数据综合反映耕地集约利用情况，分析了农户视角下耕地规模经营与集约利用的耦合关系，提出了基于理论研究、技术支撑、政策创新等方面的耦合协同模式及调控措施。