基于随机博弈网的微博用户行为及信息传播分析

Microblog is an emerging Internet service pattern in recent years, which has gained billions of users worldwide with its perfect combining of broadcasting and socializing. Information dissemination in Microblog has the charateristics of speediness, broadness, and great influence in short time. The characteristics lead to consistency of user information actions in Microblog, which make it easy to engender hotspot events in the form of commercial opportunities, or social chaos in a short period of time. To the best of our knowledge, there are no systemic research methods to describe the modeling and evolutionary process of the information dissemination of Microblog users, with the following issues. Firstly, enormous conflicts exist between the time effect of events and the huge amount of users, tweets, and relations of users in Microblog. Secondly, the information dissemination actions of Microblog users form an evolutionary game process, where the equilibrium is very difficult to calculate. Thirdly, there are no effective way to analyze and predict the propagation, evolution and disappearance of Microblog information. Aimed at solving the aforementioned problems, we plan to work on the reduction of user and tweet space of Microblog, the modeling of evolution game for Microblog users' dissemination actions, and the analyses of tweets propagation patterns in Microblog. Our work and research findings can be a theoretical foundation to reveal the patterns of the emergence of information dissemination actions of Microblog users, which could further stimulate the development of Microblog service in healthiness and in order.

微博（又称微博客）是近年来兴起的新型互联网服务模式，其设计理念完美结合新闻性与社交性二维属性，吸引了全球数以亿计的用户。微博的信息传播速度快、传播范围广、瞬时影响力大的特点，使微博用户信息行为具有群体一致性，容易形成热点事件，能够瞬间形成商机、亦能够造成社会秩序的局部混乱。当前对微博用户信息行为的建模和演化性分析尚未形成系统性的研究体系，面临如下问题：(1)微博事件的强时效性与微博用户、信息、关系的海量性之间存在矛盾；(2)微博用户信息行为之间构成一个演化博弈过程，其均衡点难于计算；(3)微博信息的传播、演化、消亡缺乏有效的分析方法和预测手段。为解决以上问题，本项目从微博用户和信息求解空间的压缩，微博用户信息行为的演化博弈建模，微博信息的传播演化规律研究等方面开展工作，为微博用户群体信息行为的涌现和信息传播规律提供理论依据，进而推动我国微博产业的健康有序发展。

微博的信息传播速度快、传播范围广、瞬时影响力大的特点，使微博用户信息行为具有群体一致性，容易形成热点事件，能够瞬间形成商机、亦能够造成社会秩序的局部混乱。当前对微博用户信息行为的建模和演化性分析尚未形成系统性的研究体系，面临如下问题：(1)微博事件的强时效性与微博用户、信息、关系的海量性之间存在矛盾；(2)微博用户信息行为之间构成一个演化博弈过程，其均衡点难于计算；(3)微博信息的传播、演化、消亡缺乏有效的分析方法和预测手段。为解决以上问题，本项目从微博用户和信息求解空间的压缩，微博用户信息行为的演化博弈建模，微博信息的传播演化规律研究等方面开展工作，为微博用户群体信息行为的涌现和信息传播规律提供理论依据，进而推动我国微博产业的健康有序发展。研究工作严格按照以上研究计划执行，在研究内容上根据近3年间社交网络发展的实际情况，将研究对象从微博扩展为微信、社交网站、在线交易平台等在线社会网络。共发表论文17篇，其中期刊论文6篇，会议论文11篇；授权发明专利9项；授权软件著作权7项；获得省部级或行业协会科技奖励3项。