基于设定地震的交通系统功能特征与应急决策方法

The seismic damage causes significant destruction of bridgs and roads,function failure of the road network,and serious obstacles encountered in the emergency rescue work.In order to improve the anti-seismic functional reliability and emergency decision-making ability of the traffic system, the response mechanism and propagation rule of the earthquake disaster for the traffic system are analyzed, based on the design and data processing of scenario earthquakes influence field. Prediction modelling methods of the traffic demand of traffic system after earthquake are established. Rapid evaluation models of possible capacity are built. The response mechanism between the road network layout and the seismic performance of the traffic system is studied.A novel evaluation method and system is proposed based on the dynamic saturaion level of the unblocked reliability of the traffic system.. Based on the combination of dynamic programming method, fuzzy decision method and time chain-based spatial reasoning method, the site selection optimization models of earthquake emergency service spots, the emergency dispatch optimization models of single service spot and multi demand spots, the emergency dispatch optimization models of multi service spots and multi demand spots of the traffic system after earthquake are established, as well as a robust calculation method of these models. Meanwhile, the effective algorithms and the optimization methods of the models are given. With integrative intensive research on the models and methods of earthquake emergency decision–making for the traffic system，a set of optimization method and system is built based on the scenario earthquake.Finally, an emergency assistant decision-making support system of the traffic system after earthquake is developed based on GIS.

地震的破坏作用会导致路桥毁损、路网功能失效，致使应急救援工作遇到严重阻碍。为提高交通系统的抗震功能可靠性和应急决策能力，开展基于设定地震影响场的设计与数据处理，分析交通系统的地震灾害响应机理及传播规律，建立交通系统震后应急交通需求预测模型与方法，建立震后路桥可能通行能力的快速评估模型；研究路网的布局模式与交通系统抗震性能之间的响应机理，构建基于时间链交通负荷度的震后交通系统功能可靠性评估体系及评估方法；运用动态规划、模糊决策法及基于时间链空间推理相结合的方法，建立震后交通系统应急服务点选址优化模型、单服务点多需求点应急调配优化模型、多服务点多需求点应急调配优化模型，并对相关模型的求解方法进行深入研究，给出有效的模型算法及优化方法；对交通系统地震应急决策模型与方法进行理论集成研究，构建基于设定地震的交通系统地震应急决策优化方法及体系；研发基于GIS的交通系统地震应急辅助决策。

地震的破坏作用会导致路桥毁损、路网功能失效，致使应急救援工作遇到严重阻碍。为提高交通系统的抗震功能可靠性和应急决策能力，开展基于设定地震影响场的设计与数据处理，分析交通系统的地震灾害响应机理及传播规律，建立交通系统震后应急交通需求预测模型与方法，建立震后路桥可能通行能力的快速评估模型；研究路网的布局模式与交通系统抗震性能之间的响应机理，构建基于时间链交通负荷度的震后交通系统功能可靠性评估体系及评估方法；运用动态规划、模糊决策法及基于时间链空间推理相结合的方法，建立震后交通系统应急服务点选址优化模型、单服务点多需求点应急调配优化模型、多服务点多需求点应急调配优化模型，并对相关模型的求解方法进行深入研究，给出有效的模型算法及优化方法；对交通系统地震应急决策模型与方法进行理论集成研究，构建基于设定地震的交通系统地震应急决策优化方法及体系；研发基于GIS的交通系统地震应急辅助决策。