边缘化城市增长与收缩转换的驱动机理及响应模式——以伊春市为例

City shrinkage is a hot and frontier issue all over the world nowadays, and the shrinkage of marginalized cities has increasingly become a significant "new normal" during the transition period. This study takes the transformation of growth and shrinkage in marginalized cities as a new perspective, with a typical marginalized city—Yichun City as a case. Based on integrated application of statistical data, geographical spatial-temporal big data, field surveys and other multi-source data and multi-period, multi-scale analysis, the research will build a theoretical model of the transformation of growth and shrinkage in marginalized cities. And this article will mainly work on and try to demonstrate the following scientific issues: (1)This study will analyze the quantitative characteristic, spatial variation and influencing effects of the spatial-temporal transformation of urban growth and shrinkage, in order to reveal the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of transformation of growth and shrinkage in marginalized cities.(2)The study will explore the intrinsic motivation, influencing factors and mechanism of the transformation of urban growth and shrinkage and finally draw a conclusion of driving mechanism of the transformation of growth and shrinkage in marginalized cities. (3) The study will analyze the evolution trend of the transformation of urban growth and shrinkage, and we will simulate and put forward response mode and achieve path of city shrinkage to meet the sustainable development of Yichun City under the condition of "slow growth" and "negative growth". Through this project, we will analyze the theoretical results of the study on city shrinkage and urban development and evolution further and provide theoretical support and feasible path for Yichun City and other similar cities to deal with the shrinkage challenge.

城市收缩是近期国内外关注的热点前沿问题，边缘化城市收缩日趋显著成为转型期“新常态”。本研究将边缘化城市增长与收缩转换作为研究新视角，以伊春市为典型案例，基于统计数据、地理时空大数据、实地调查等多源数据的整合应用以及多时段、多尺度分析，构建边缘化城市增长与收缩转换的理论模型，重点研究并论证以下科学问题：（1）剖析城市增长与收缩时空转换的程度特征、分异类型及影响效应，揭示边缘化城市增长与收缩转换的时空演变规律；（2）探究城市增长与收缩转换的内在动因、影响因素及作用机制，提炼边缘化城市增长与收缩转换的驱动机理；（3）评估判断城市增长与收缩转换的演变趋势，论证提出“慢增长”和“负增长”情境下适应伊春市城市可持续发展要求的城市收缩响应模式及其实现路径。通过本项目研究，将进一步深化和拓展城市收缩研究及城市发展演化理论成果，并为伊春市以及其他同类城市应对收缩挑战提供理论支撑和可行路径。

城市收缩已成为城市地理学研究的热点问题之一，并得到学术界的广泛关注。尽管增长仍然是城市发展的主流，却已不再是城市发展的唯一路径，以城市人口持续减少、经济增长滞缓、结构转型缓慢等为主要表现的城市收缩日益显著成为城镇化的新特征和新挑战。本项目围绕研究计划和目标，在全面梳理国内外已有研究的基础上，进一步拓展研究视角，以典型边缘化城市和收缩城市——伊春市为案例，整合应用统计数据、地理时空大数据、问卷访谈等多源数据，综合采用定量分析、对比分析等研究方法，基于边缘化城市增长与收缩转换内涵的科学界定，构建了城市增长与收缩转换的评价体系和测度模型，探讨了城市增长与收缩转换的时空演变格局及其驱动机制，剖析了城市收缩的社会效应及影响特征，提出了人口流失与城市收缩背景下的城镇化响应模式以及“慢增长”情景下的收缩城市精明发展路径。. 通过本项目研究，初步建立了伊春市城市增长与收缩研究的基础数据集，进一步揭示了城市增长与收缩转换的时空演变规律，深入阐释了城市增长与收缩演变的内在机理，探索构建了城市增长与收缩演变的研究框架，补充和拓展了收缩城市研究的理论与案例成果，并为伊春市及其他同类城市应对收缩挑战提供了理论支撑和参考借鉴。