“技术-制度”双重解锁视角下高碳产业低碳转型动力机制及引导策略研究

The low carbon transformation of high carbon industries lays solid foundation for upgrading industries and abating regional carbon emissions. Based on double perspectives of “technology-institution”, this project establishes carbon lock-in verification framework. It conducts quantitative analysis on the carbon lock-in features of high carbon industry through BP breakpoints structure model. It can reveal the forming mechanism and evolving rules of path-dependence of high carbon industries by establishing the model of “technology-institution” symbiotic evolution. Based on the above study, the project will analyze the interest equilibrium conditions and strategic options of multi-agent by forming multi-agent evolutionary game model of low carbon transformation for high carbon industries. We will explore double lock-out path of “technology-institution” through GERT network model. Following system theory, this project will analyze the driving forces and DPSIR model for low-carbon transformation of high carbon industries. Furthermore, we will analyze the driving forces formation and transmission mechanism for low carbon transformation of high carbon industries through PLS-SEM model. Cite iron and steel industry as an example, we will also explore effective guidance strategies for low carbon transformation of high carbon industries from the aspects of strengthening motivation mechanism and optimizing multi-agent behavior. This project is not only a theoretical exploration to handle some important issues on the formation of carbon lock-in and lock-out paths of high carbon industrial, but also an attempt to establish feasible and effective countermeasures to promote low carbon transformation of high carbon industries in our economic activities.

高碳产业低碳转型是推动产业升级、实现区域碳减排目标的重要基础。本项目基于“技术－制度”双重视角，拟通过构建高碳产业碳锁定验证模型，结合BP断点结构模型等方法，量化分析高碳产业碳锁定特征，通过构建包含碳锁定特征的“技术－制度”共生演化模型，揭示高碳产业碳锁定路径依赖形成机理与演化规律；在此基础上，拟构建高碳产业低碳转型多主体进化博弈模型，分析多主体利益均衡条件及策略选择，结合GERT网络模型，设计高碳产业低碳转型的“技术－制度”双重解锁路径。运用系统理论，提炼高碳产业低碳转型的动力因素，构建高碳产业低碳转型DPSIR模型；应用PLS-SEM方法，分析高碳产业低碳转型的动力形成与传导机理。以钢铁产业为例，从强化动力机制、优化多主体行为等方面提出高碳产业低碳转型的引导策略。本项目研究既是在理论上对高碳产业碳锁定成因及碳解锁路径等重要问题的探索，又是在实践中对合理制定高碳产业低碳转型对策的尝试。

高碳产业低碳转型是推动产业升级、实现区域碳减排目标的重要基础。本项目先分别从中国整体产业(包含高碳产业)、具体高碳产业(火力发电行业)、具体省区高碳产业等视角，研究了高碳产业碳排放静态总量特征、动态变动特征、交互转移特征。其次，分别从高碳产业所涉及到的央地政府、政企业关系、第三方组织等众多主体展形式博弈关系分析。在宏观上，探讨了高碳产业低碳转型中技术与减排制度对碳排放的影响；在微观上，提出了单个企业和供应链企业群体的碳资产质押模式，从微观企业和供应链群体企业视角提出了高碳产业低碳转型模式及可行的路径。再次，按动力来源及具体表征形式对中国高碳产业低碳转型动力属性进行提炼；定义了中国高碳产业低碳转型动力构成，构建了中国高碳产业低碳转型动力测度评价指标体系并以典型高碳产业——钢铁产业为例进行实证分析，提出了高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略。研究表明：1. 只有当技术和制度共同作用时，才会起到碳解锁效应，而碳锁定效应在经济落后地区具有典型性，经济发展、城镇化推进、产业结构偏重、能源结构偏煤都显著促进了碳排放；2. 转换成本的壁垒作用是高碳产业技术锁定效应难以突破的主要根源，解除技术锁定效应，须从高碳产业的系统重构、技术创新和财税政策等方面寻求出路；3. 单个企业和供应链企业群体的碳资产质押融资模式，可以用以解决企业减排融资问题，在此基础上，通过构建市场化调控机制，推动企业减排，进而吸引更多市场主体参与供应链协同减排，这将是高碳产业低碳转型的新途径；4. 中国钢铁产业低碳转型总体动力现处于“一般”水平，在推动其低碳转型过程中，贡献相对最高的是“内生支撑力”，贡献相对最低的是“内生牵引力”，“外生推力”与“外生拉力”贡献居中，“倒逼”推动较之“补贴”推动相对更有效。