我国海岛地震灾害特征分析及风险评价研究

China enjoys abundant resources of islands, but Chinese islands are earthquake-prone, for the reason that they are distributed in the seismically active intersection zone of the Pacific Plate and Eurasian Continent Plate. Island Seismic Hazard (ISH), disaster-bearing system and sea-land integrated environment generate island earthquake disaster of distinctive features. Adopting theoretical analysis, data integration, spatial analysis and modeling, scenario simulation, etc., this study constructs Ontology System of Island Earthquake Disaster Risk (IEDR) to form theoretical foundation and structurally-defined model parameters, which covers IEDR components and severs for future Semantic Web. This study proposes a transformation mapping between data standards to embed BIM data into GIS basic information platform to realize the information transaction among multisource heterogeneous data, which helps to enrich the data types of the island information platform, and form the data base in the study accordingly. By the introduction of Risk Preference (RP) and Risk Utility Function (RUF) based on island characteristics, we deduce the evaluation pattern of IEDR assessment model, and propose model for IEDR assessment which combines Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE), System Dynamics Analysis (SDA) and Social Network Analysis (SNA), combined with the optimizing of subjective and objective index system and weight algorithm. Finally, spatial analysis modeling helps to develop the applicable analysis program, Application Program Interface (API) and simulation module of ISH, IEDR, disaster scenario, etc. This study enriches the theory and method of earthquake engineering in the field of islands, and has a significant meaning to prevent and reduce earthquake disaster along with island protection, development and utilization.

我国海岛资源丰富，处太平洋与亚欧大陆相交的地震活跃带，其地震危险性、承灾体系统，海陆环境共同形成特征显著的海岛地震灾害。项目采用理论分析、数据整合、空间分析建模及情景模拟等手段，建立涵盖海岛地震灾害风险构成要素，面向语义网的海岛地震灾害风险知识本体，形成项目理论基础与结构化定义的模型参数；提出将海岛工程BIM数据嵌入GIS基础信息平台的数据标准转换映射实现多源异构数据的信息传递，构建项目信息平台；引入基于海岛特征的风险偏好与效用推演海岛地震灾害风险综合评估方法的评价模式，优化主客观指标体系及权重算法，研发联合模糊综合评判、系统动力学分析与社会网络分析的海岛地震灾害风险评价模型；获得可工程化应用的海岛地震危险性空间分析、灾害风险评价、灾害情景模拟等分析程序、应用程序接口及仿真示范模块。本研究丰富地震工程在海岛领域的理论与方法；对促进海岛保护、开发及利用与防震减灾的协调有重要意义。

我国海岛区域处太平洋与亚欧大陆相交的地震活跃带，其地震危险性、承灾体系统，海陆环境共同形成特征显著的海岛地震灾害。然而其分析基本参照陆域城市，未能考虑海岛的海陆综合特征、独特的承灾体构成以及地震地质特征等。本课题聚焦三项研究内容。1）基于海岛地震灾害的特征分析，建立了涵盖海岛地震灾害风险构成要素，面向语义网的海岛地震灾害风险知识本体，形成项目理论基础与结构化定义的模型参数。2）全面分析海岛地震灾害风险的三个构成，即为海岛地震危险性，承灾体的易损性以及防震减灾应急能力；并在完成研究目标的基础上，进一步从社会脆弱性的视角分析海岛地震灾害；形成海岛地震灾害风险分析模型。3）利用前沿技术，基于海岛地震灾害风险结构化知识定义，整合表征海岛空间分布要素特征的地理信息系统（Geographic Information System, GIS）数据与表征海岛工程内部特征的建筑信息模型（Building Information Modeling, BIM）数据，丰富海岛信息平台的数据构成；融合本体技术与空间分析建模优势，提高BIM与GIS多源异构数据的信息处理层面，实现专业知识推理，以及方法的程序化。本课题最终达成既定目标，丰富了地震工程在海岛领域的理论、方法、模型及应用范式。