山区溃坝人口应急转移系统动力特性研究

Reservoir dams are important fundamental facilities. Emergency transfer is the key measure for dam failure hazards adaptation and mitigation. Currently, relevant researches mainly focus on overlay analysis of flood, population and transfer paths and life loss statistics with overlooking interactions and driving relations existed in the coupling course of environments, surface features and crowds. As a result, it’s hard to know the interactions and system dynamic evolution mechanism between system elements. In this research, targeted at the crowds, substances, energies and information relating to emergency transfer, based on more methods such as system dynamics, dam failure hydraulics and cluster analysis and so on, using multi-source data fusion covering 3529 dam failure events information, experts’ experiences and relevant research findings, re-understanding courses of emergency transfer in system perspective is made, and mining dynamic impact factors, characteristics and feedback mechanism is made, and in-depth exploration of feedback relationship within environment and human activities and dam failure disaster transfer is made. Then Relying on the Qinghai province Gouhou dam failure case, establishment of dam failure emergency transfer system dynamics model and simulation of dam failure emergency transfer system dynamic running process are made. By means of this, mountain area dam failure emergency transfer system dynamic characteristics are revealed. This study is an attempt to expand the scope of surface system science to the emergency situation, and provides theoretical basis for the emergency management planning and transfer plan.

水库大坝是防洪减灾重要基础设施，应急转移是溃坝洪涝灾害防灾减灾关键手段。目前相关研究集中在洪水-人流-路径叠加分析与生命损失统计等表层阶段，忽略了“环境-地物-人群”三元耦合过程的相互作用与驱动关系，难以认识元素间相互作用过程和系统动态演化机制。本课题拟以溃坝影响区内与应急转移有关的人群、物质、能量、信息全要素为对象，基于系统动力学、溃坝水力学、聚类分析等多学科方法，通过全国3529座历史溃坝信息、专家经验、相关研究成果等多源信息融合，以系统视角重新认识溃坝应急转移过程，挖掘蕴含其中的动态影响因素、特征及因果反馈机制，探索转移环境、人类活动与溃坝灾害间的互馈关系，依托青海沟后水库溃坝案例，建立溃坝应急转移系统动力学模型，仿真实验溃坝应急转移的系统动态运行过程，揭示山区溃坝应急转移系统动力特性。本课题是地表系统科学研究范畴向紧急情况拓展的尝试，并为溃坝应急管理规划和转移预案制定提供理论依据。

水库是国家重要基础设施，一旦溃坝给下游公共安全造成极大威胁，国内外均有惨痛教训。应急转移是避免或减轻溃坝致灾关键手段，目前相关研究多集于洪水-人流-道路叠加分析和生命损失统计，忽略了转移过程中“环境-地物-人群”三元耦合因素，应急转移系统动力特性认识不足，应急转移决策理论研究不够，影响预案制定和应急处突。本项目着眼于工程科学、自然科学、社会科学交叉研究，系统视角重新认识溃坝应急转移过程，研究山区溃坝应急转移系统动力特性，初步揭示蕴含其中的理论认识。主要成果包括:.一、揭示了水库突发事件演化机制。建立了水库突发事件链式演化效应模型，基于应急响应流程逻辑分解与信息整合构建了决策主体、应急行为、应急信息之间的逻辑架构，揭示了水库突发事件演化机制。.二、获得了溃坝应急转移系统因果反馈机制新认识。突破传统的线性思维和局部视野，系统视角重新认识溃坝应急转移过程，考虑组织、人员、技术多层级风险因素，挖掘驱动应急转移过程的动态因子及其反馈关系，构建了溃坝应急转移系统动态影响因素因果反馈机制及其反馈回路结构。.三、探讨了溃坝应急转移系统动力特性。尝试将系统动力学理论应用于溃坝应急转移研究中，捕捉突发短历时条件下溃坝应急转移系统内动态因素之间的反馈机制，建立了应急转移系统动力学数值模型，首次实现了应急转移决策行为与转移效果的定量描述。通过仿真模拟沟后水库溃坝应急转移系统，推演了应急转移组织决策与群众生命损失随时间动态变化过程，初步探讨了溃坝应急转移系统动力特性。.四、提出了溃坝应急转移智慧决策新方法。耦合溃坝洪水淹没仿真与应急转移系统动力学模型，基于工程实例探索了集智慧决策逻辑架构、多源瞬态信息共享、决策方案优化等于一体的溃坝应急转移智慧决策新方法。.本项目是对溃坝灾害与人类活动互馈规律的研究，相关成果为水库应急管理规划、应急转移措施、应急预案制定提供理论依据，对防灾减灾有一定理论价值和现实意义。