基于IVIF-VIKOR的地质灾害应急动态决策方法研究

Geologic hazard emergency response decision-making is vitally important for hazard mitigation and post-hazard management. Aiming at some problems in geologic hazard emergency response decision-making, such as too many decision makers participate in decision-making, limited time, complex fuzzy information, mismatched emergency plans with the actual hazard situation, difficulties in adjusting the implementing plans, etc., the project intends to propose a multiple attribute group emergency dynamic decision-making method based on IVIF-VIKOR using fuzzy theory and statistic decision technology. By analyzing geologic structure and hazard cases of some typical areas in our country, the project firstly extracts hazard-inducing factors, sets hazard state parameters, constructs chronological state function of the hazard according to the actual hazard situation; then calculates the adjustment time-point series of the decision-making process and uses decision model of IVIF-VIKOR to select the preliminary optimal plan set; next constructs the profit and loss function of each plan based on the imitated implementation plan and the state of hazards; finally achieves the adjusted plan and the optimized decision-making by emergency resource constraint and goal programming. The research findings of the proposed project will reduce many disadvantages in conventional static time-point emergency decision-making methods, such as the isolated decision, too much subjective intervention, and difficulties in decision-making effect test, etc., and will have important theoretical and practical significance for improving the efficiency and precision of geologic hazard emergency decision-making, and gaining time for the hazard rescue and mitigation.

地质灾害应急响应决策对救灾减灾与灾后治理有至关重要的作用。项目拟针对地质灾害应急决策中决策主体众多、时间紧迫，决策依据的信息庞杂模糊，应急预案与灾害实际状况不匹配，预案实施后调整困难等问题，运用模糊理论、统计与决策技术，提出一种基于区间值直觉模糊折中优序(IVIF-VIKOR)的多属性群体应急动态决策方法。该方法拟从我国典型区域地质结构与灾害案例分析入手，提炼致灾因子，设置地质灾害的状态参数，并结合灾害实况，构建灾害的序时状态函数；计算预案调整时点集，运用IVIF-VIKOR决策模型初步决策出优选预案集；依据预案模拟实施情况与灾害实况，构建预案的实施损益函数；通过应急资源约束与目标规划，实现预案的调整与决策优化。本项目研究成果将减少传统的静态时点应急决策中决策前后孤立、主观干预过多、决策效果检验困难等带来的影响，对提高地质灾害应急决策的效率与精度，争取灾害应急时间具有重要的理论与实践意义。

本项目主要针对地质灾害应急响应决策缓慢、决策依据模糊、灾后治理困难等问题，针对其多因素、多主体、多方案的应急决策过程，运用模糊决策理论、统计与决策技术，提出了基于IVIF-VIKOR的地质灾害应急动态决策方法，从而实现对应急预案进行优化，提高地质灾害应急决策效率。首先，从应急决策机制分析入手，研究了地表环境、气候环境与土壤l含水承载力等因素对地质灾害形成的影响，分析了地质灾害的区域性与灾害分布的规律性，针对灾害的区域性特点，重点选定湖广地区作为重点研究区域，走访了湘西与湘北重要的地质灾害区，借鉴图像分割与图像处理的理论与方法，调研提取灾害发生前后的相关数据、图像资料，提炼地质灾害致灾因子；其次，对湖广地质灾害形成与致灾因子进行了相关分析，对灾害类别与地质构造的关系进行梳理，设置地质灾害的状态参数，选定滑坡与泥石流作为主要灾害研究对象，运用马尔可夫统计模型，构建泥石流与渗漏式滑坡灾害的序时状态函数，以湘北与湘西地区为重点，就其泥石流与地陷灾害状态变化规律展开了研究，提炼灾害类别因子与状态指标，研究了泥石流与地陷灾害发生前后常用的救援与防控措施、已有的灾害预测与预警方法、灾害损害的数据统计分析以及对灾害过程检测处理程序；然后，运用IVIF-VIKOR决策模型初步决策出优选预案集，依据预案模拟实施情况与灾害实况，构建预案的实施损益函数，通过应急资源约束与目标规划，实现预案的调整与决策优化，并给出应急预案的优化路径。综合上述结果，本课题研究弥补了传统静态时点应急决策中的部分缺陷，同时对于提高地质灾害应急决策的效率与精度具有理论与实践意义。项目资助发表论文6篇，其中SCI检索3篇，ISTP检索1篇，EI检索1篇，CSSCI检索1篇，申请国家发明专利一项，项目培养博士毕业生2名，硕士毕业生2名。