中国工业园区温室气体减排研究——基于能源基础设施视角

As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China has been facing a big challenge to address the issue of climate change sustainably. China has also been acting as the ‘world factory’ and low carbon development of its industrial sector will paly a crucial role in mitigating climate change. Energy infrastructure, having a characteristic of significant inertia represented by ‘committed emissions’ in long service lifetime, will contribute substantial CO2 emissions reduction by accomplishing low carbon development. China’s more than 1500 industrial parks are seen to play a crucial role in facilitating industrialization and urbanization. Many industrial parks, however, also pose substantial threats to the local environment owing to large resource-energy consumption accompanied by intensive industrial production. This study aims to depict the strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) from Chinese industrial parks by targeting energy infrastructure. Based on the preliminary research on 106 national demonstration eco-industrial parks, we aim to establish a high-resolution inventory of energy infrastructure in 400-500 Chinese industrial parks, examine the evolution of serviceable energy infrastructure units by vintage years, fuel type, energy outputs, and technologies, assess GHG emissions and energy efficiencies, offer unit-specific recommendations for ways to mitigate GHG emissions along the total service lifetime of energy infrastructure, and then quantify potentials and cost-effectiveness of the key measures identified here under different scenarios. This study will set a robust base for decision-making on low carbon development of Chinese industrial parks.

中国是全球最大碳排放国，在应对气候变化威胁上面临着巨大压力。工业领域低碳发展对于缓解气候变化威胁具有重要作用。能源基础设施因服役期长及排放惯性，其低碳发展对于温室气体减排尤为重要。中国1500余家工业园区做为“世界工厂”中最重要的“车间”，因工业活动集聚、资源能源消耗及温室气体排放量大，绿色低碳发展尤为迫切。项目针对中国工业园区温室气体减排问题，从能源基础设施视角，基于已开展的106个国家生态工业示范园区能源基础设施温室气体减排研究，扩展建立400-500家园区大样本高分辨能源基础设施存量清单，多角度分析存量的结构演化特征；识别能源基础设施温室气体减排关键措施并分机组进行匹配；构建温室气体减排模型，分析能源基础设施效率，核算减排措施实施前后温室气体排放，并阐明减排措施单独作用及组合作用下能源基础设施全服役周期温室气体减排潜力、减排成本及不确定性，为推进中国工业园区低碳发展决策提供科学依据。

应对气候变化是当今人类社会面临的共同挑战，中国政府承诺在2030年前CO2排放达峰。工业是应对气候变化重点领域，中国有2543家国家级和省级园区，贡献了50%以上工业产出。研究园区温室气体（GHG）排放特征与控制，具有重要现实意义和科学价值。.项目针对中国工业园区GHG减排问题，从能源基础设施视角，首次建立了涵盖1600余家中国工业园区的大样本、高分辨基础数据库；定量核算园区GHG排放及基础设施生态效率，提出了能源基础设施GHG减排关键措施和自下而上分机组与减排措施匹配方法，构建了GHG减排“年份-存量（Vintage-Stock）”模型，阐明了园区GHG减排的途径、潜力、成本效益及不确定性。.研究主要发现如下：（1）阐明了中国工业园区基础设施存量特征及其资源环境影响：1600家园区的在役能源基础设施总装机容量为515 GW，占2014年全国总发电装机容量的38%，这些基础设施的GHG排放量占全国的21%，二氧化硫排放占12%，氮氧化物排放占15%，淡水消耗占全国工业用水量的5%。（2）确诊了园区能源基础设施的“三高”特征：燃煤机组多（装机容量占87%）、小机组多（50MW以下数量占62%）、GHG排放量在园区占比高。（3）能源-水-材料耦合，从全生命周期视角设计了能源基础设施GHG减排年份存量Vintage-stock模型V2.0，研究了5种减排技术下，多污染物协同减排及节水潜力。结果显示：GHG减排潜力可达8~16%，协同减排二氧化硫 24~31%、减排氮氧化物 10~14%，协同节水34~39%，其不确定区间为8~16%、34~39%、24%~31% 和10%~14%。进一步揭示了园区污水处理系统的GHG减排潜力，定量刻画了“能—水”耦合关系，阐明了能源-环境基础设施耦合的节能减排潜力。.项目成果为推进中国工业园区低碳发展决策提供了重要科学依据。