长时段视域下县域城镇化的路径、模式与重构——基于河南省巩义市600年的考察

Based on macro background of the new urbanization, the project used long time theory of the French Annales school, to card county urbanization growth path, spatial pattern and optimal reconstruction by employed the 600 years data of Gongyi City from the Ming Dynasty. Based on macro background of the new urbanization, the project will use long time theory of the French Annales school, to card county urbanization growth path, spatial pattern and optimal reconstruction by employed the 600 years data of Gongyi City from the Ming Dynasty. The project will combine extended case method, GIS analysis, econometrics model with field research method, dig growth path, explore deep historical roots which hamper expansion to promote constructive programs and strategies for the new urbanization development, reveal evolutionary stages and temporal lineage, describe the principle followed by county urbanization, seek reconstruction ways and spatial patterns, build optimization model, grasped urbanization law, investigate evolution process, spatial pattern, principle and its inherent logic, analyze and assess development potential and support ability to improve the relevance and effectiveness for county urbanization. The expectation is the similarities and differences between the natural evolution and the rapid promote of urbanization could been clarified from historical perspective, which is expected to compensate for the limitations of traditional short period analysis and the defect which will been brought by "top-down" study lacked by micro-scale, and provide an opportunity for the re-understanding of the basic value of urbanization development process in the rural settlement. Thus, the project will provide constructive programs and strategies for new urbanization, and improve the relevance and effectiveness of county urbanization regulation, enrich the basic theory of man-land relationship and spatial patterns.

本项目立足于新型城镇化的宏观背景，利用法国年鉴学派长时段理论，以河南省巩义市明朝至今600年的数据为依据，把扩展个案法、GIS分析法、计量分析法和田野调查法相结合，挖掘县域城镇化的成长路径，探寻现实瓶颈的深刻历史根源，揭示县域城镇化的演化阶段与时空谱系，刻画县域城镇化的遵循原则，寻找县域城镇化的重构途径和空间模式，构建县域城镇化的优化模型，把握县域城镇化的发展规律，考察县域城镇化的内在逻辑，研判和评估县域城镇化的发展潜力与支撑能力。期望能从历史视角厘清自然演进城镇化与急速推进城镇化之间的异同，有望弥补传统短时段分析所带来的视野局限和“自上而下”式研究缺乏微观尺度的缺憾，并为重新认识我国乡村聚落在城镇化发展历程中的基本价值提供了契机。从而，为推动县域新型城镇化的发展提供建设性方案与策略，提高县域城镇化调控的针对性和有效性，丰富人地关系及空间格局的基本理论。

利用法国年鉴学派长时段理论，把扩展个案法、GIS分析法、计量分析法和田野调查法相结合，主要从国内外村落衰退、乡村发展时空传承性、县域聚落空间结构演变、乡村聚落演变的空间分异及影响因素、乡村聚落空间分异的空间界面效应和新型城镇化背景下县级城市发展等6个方面进行重点研究。结果表明：（1）城镇化进程中应积极应对村落衰退，尊重村落兴衰规律，以农户迁移的微观行为为基础并适应新时期人地关系的变化。（2）乡村振兴需要关注长时段视角VS短时段视角、地理环境VS经济社会、自下而上VS自上而下和一般性VS特殊性的关系。（3）乡村聚落时空演变特征，在时间演变上，齐夫指数偏小但增长较快、分形维数偏大但降速加快、基尼系数较小但增加明显；在空间演变上，沿河线状格局变化、网络等级结构形成、核心聚落转移替代；在驱动力上，第一阶段聚落空间变化以工业化推动为主、第二阶段以行政化推动为主、第三阶段以市场化推动为主。（4）山区乡村聚落空间分异的影响因素，地形的影响相对较大，社会经济因子中乡镇和县城中心的影响次之；但随城镇化进程的不断加快，县城中心的影响逐渐增强，而乡镇中心和地形的影响逐渐减弱。（5）空间界面的尺度效应、集肤效应、边缘效应和加成效应等多重效应在一定程度上推动了县域要素的空间重组，促使乡村性空间分异的加强。人文界面中的交通界面、行政界面和居住界面对乡村性空间分异影响较大，而自然界面影响较小。（6）县级城市城镇化模式有新型工业引领型、都市边缘融合型、政策扶持带动型、城乡一体驱动型和区域对接联动型等，推动县级城市发展应从强化新型工业、融合中心城市、借力政策优势、统筹城乡发展和对接核心城市等方面着手。期望能从历史视角厘清自然演进城镇化与急速推进城镇化之间的异同，有望弥补传统短时段分析所带来的视野局限和“自上而下”式研究缺乏微观尺度的缺憾，并为重新认识我国乡村聚落在城镇化发展历程中的基本价值提供契机。