多因素耦合作用下尾矿库（坝）溃决矿浆运动机制及其预测模型研究

Tailings dam-break is the one of the main form of the tailings dam accident,As a most serious disaster in metal mines,it threats the security of production seriously.According to the key problem of end prevention of tailings dam-break disaster—the movement mechanism of slurry surging from tailings dam-break,the project planed to carry out the fundamental research on the movement mechanism of slurry surging from tailings dam-break under multi-variable coupling participation by scene investigation, theoretical analysis,model experiments and numerical simulation.The superposed function and movement equation of slurry behavior including the multi-variable processes was established,and the multi-variable include dam geometry(height), grain size,concentration, characteristic of groove(section shape,gradient, roughness) and entrance of break,the space-time characteristics of tailings slurry in different factors have been recoverd,and the mathematical model of disaster consequence prediction is also established. The ArcGIS and numerical simulation are uesed to calculate the local tailings dam-break,and the movement equation of slurry behavior and the mathematical model of disaster consequence prediction will be used in practical project to validate their validity.The research could provide scientific basis and technology support for disaster consequence prediction and countermeasures making for disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is of great both theoretical and practical significance.

溃坝是尾矿坝失事的主要形式之一，作为金属矿山生产过程中致灾最严重的灾害事故，严重威胁着矿山的生产安全。本项目针对尾矿坝溃坝灾害末端防治的关键问题——溃决矿浆运动机制，拟采用现场勘查、试验研究、理论分析与三维数值模拟相结合的综合研究方法，对多因子耦合作用下尾矿坝溃决矿浆在复杂沟谷中的运动行为规律及其动力学特性进行深入研究，建立包括尾矿坝几何参数、尾矿粒级、尾矿浆溢流浓度、沟谷特性参数（断面形状、纵比降、糙率）和溃决口门等多因子耦合影响下的矿浆运动行为叠加影响函数及运动方程，揭示各影响因子对溃决矿浆时空演化的影响规律，并提出溃坝灾损预测量化数学模型；运用三维扫描技术与数值模拟对现场工程进行溃坝计算，并将溃决矿浆运动方程及灾损预测量化数学模型与实际工程进行有效性验证。研究成果具有重要的理论价值和良好的应用前景，可以为溃坝灾害的预测预报、防灾减灾预案制定提供科学依据和技术支持。

项目结合我国尾矿库事故频发现状，从尾矿库灾害末端防治入手，开展复杂条件下尾矿坝溃决灾害预测研究。围绕多因子耦合作用对尾矿坝溃决矿浆运动行为及其动力学特征影响规律等科学问题，采用实验研究、理论分析与数值模拟相结合的方法，对不同尾矿坝几何参数（库容）、尾矿粒级、尾矿浆溢流浓度、沟谷特性参数（纵比降、糙率）和溃决口门等因素影响下矿浆在下游的淹没高程、冲击力、作用时间、流动距离等一系列问题开展了系统深入的研究，获取了考虑多因子耦合作用下溃决矿浆运动行为及其动力学特征。结果表明，上述因素多溃决矿浆运动规律有不同程度的影响，并在此基础上建立了考虑尾矿坝几何参数（库容）、尾矿浆溢流浓度、沟谷特性参数（纵比降、糙率）和溃决口门等多元耦合作用下溃坝矿浆运动预测模型，并采用三维数值计算对该预测模型进行了验证，得到该模型能较好的对溃决矿浆运动规律进行预测。研究成果可为库区下游的风险评估、溃坝灾害的预测预报、防灾减灾预案制定提供科学依据和技术支持。