我国西南沿边境外罂粟替代种植扩张及其跨境生态影响

Opium poppy replacement planting is an important part of geopolitical economic cooperation between China and its neighboring countries of Southeast Asia and is regarded as the fundamental strategy of cross-border anti-drug. But, rapid expansion of opium poppy replacement planting led to significant changes in land use pattern beyond China's southwest border. Accordingly, transboundary ecological problems related to these changes gradually highlighted. In this proposal, the Sino-Laos and Sino-Myanmar border regions, one of the world's most abundant species and most threatened biodiversity hotspots, are selected as our study area. Spatial expansion and its main driving factors of opium poppy replacement planting abroad beyond China's southwest border will be analyzed using RS and GIS. Cellular automata and multi-agent models will be combinedly employed to simulate spatio-temporal processes of LUCC impacted by opium poppy replacement planting abroad and thereby the related driving mechanisms are attempted to reveal. Cross-border ecological effects of these LUCC will be probed using landscape connectivity model and connectivity-related indices, and then uncover the coupling relationships between landscape patterns and ecological processes in the border regions. On this basis, landscape connectivity optimization and ecological security regulatory policies related to transboundary ecosystem will be proposed. This study will further enrich research on regional response to global environmental change and develop theory on the interaction between LUCC and ecological processes within cross-border regions. Furthermore, its findings can provide scientific basis and guidance for export-oriented land resources development, cross-border biodiversity conservation, cross-border ecological security maintenance, cross-border multilateral cooperation and the maintenance of border security and stability along the China's southwest border.

罂粟替代种植是我国与东南亚毗邻国家地缘政治经济合作的重要内容，被视为跨境禁毒的治本之策。但替代种植的迅速扩张导致我国西南沿边境外土地利用格局明显变化，与之相关跨境生态问题逐渐突显。本项目以我国西南中-老和中-缅边境地带为研究区，借助遥感、GIS技术，剖析境外罂粟替代种植扩张动态及其主要环境驱动因子；结合元胞自动机和多智能体模型模拟境外罂粟替代种植作用下边境地带LUCC时空过程，揭示其驱动机制；运用景观连接度度量方法，从景观格局与生态过程耦合角度研究替代种植扩张下LUCC的跨境生态影响，揭示跨国境地区景观空间格局与生态过程相互作用关系，提出跨境生态系统景观连接度优化与生态安全调控策略。该研究可丰富全球环境变化的区域响应研究，发展跨境地区LUCC与生态过程的相互作用理论，并为我国西南边境外向型土地资源开发、跨境生物多样性保护、跨境生态安全维持与跨境多边合作以及维护边境安全稳定等提供科学依据。

罂粟替代种植是我国与东南亚毗邻国家地缘政治经济合作的重要内容，被视为跨境禁毒的治本之策。但替代种植的迅速扩张导致我国西南沿边境内外土地利用格局明显变化，与之相关跨境生态问题逐渐突显。本项目以我国西南中-老和中-缅边境地带为研究区，研发出基于特定物候期植被指数差值的橡胶林识别、融合地形与光谱信息的多端元光谱混合分解等新方法；模拟分析了复杂地形山区Landsat时序变化检测中地形效应的潜在影响；采用分类后对比和时序变化检测方法探测了境外罂粟替代种植扩张下边境地带LUCC的时空过程；结合关联分析与LUCC模拟等揭示了以橡胶林种植扩张为主的LUCC的驱动机制；分析了边境地带跨境森林生态系统景观格局及其分异特征，初步揭示了景观空间格局与亚洲象生境相互作用关系及其对LUCC的响应。该研究发展和丰富了复杂地形山区LUCC遥感探测技术，拓展了我国西南沿边跨境地区LUCC与生态过程的相互作用理论，相关研究成果能为我国西南边境外向型土地资源开发、跨境生物多样性保护、跨境生态安全维持与跨境多边合作以及维护边境安全稳定等提供基础数据支撑和科学依据。