发电产业环境外部成本非市场评估及节能减排政策模型

Along with the rapid development of china's economy, serious environmental externalities are facing China. Environmental regulation policies can promote enterprises internalizing external costs. However, one of difficulties facing policy makers is that the lack of quantitative information to make appropriate regulation measures. Non-market valuation technique (NMVT) is the most important method to evaluate quantitatively external environmental costs. Since 1970s, the study and application of NMVT have been carried out in more than 50 countries, such as in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and so on. NMVT has become the significant basis of formulating the environmental policies in developed countries. The study and application about NMVT is scant in China. In view of 40 percent of CO2 and 60 percent of SO2 emissions come from power generation sectors in China, this application focuses on the NMVT of environmental costs in China's power generation sectors. Based mainly on Choice model, laboratory experiment, and simulation calculation, the external environmental costs of China's power generation sectors under various technical choices and social economic conditions are studied quantitatively. Meanwhile, using the methods of sensitivity analysis, cheap talk script, etc., to study how to reduce the uncertainty of NMVT. Moreover, the construction of the policy model for energy saving and emission reduction is explored on the basis of fair and efficiency. Finally, simulation calculation is provided to evaluate the external environmental costs of power generation sectors under various environmental policy mechanisms.

中国经济快速发展产生了严重的环境外部性。制定环境规制政策目的在于促使社会主体把污染物的外部成本内生化。但是，政策制定者经常面临的一个困难是量化信息缺失。非市场评估方法是对环境外部成本定量化评估的一项重要技术。20世纪70年代以来，非市场评估研究和应用已在英、美、澳大利亚等50多个国家广泛展开，成为发达国家能源环境政策制定的重要依据。中国对非市场评估的研究和应用还很少。鉴于中国CO2排放总量近40% 、SO2排放量近60%均来自发电产业，本课题重点关注发电产业的环境外部性。运用选择模型、实验室实验法、仿真计算等方法对不同技术选择和不同社会经济条件下的发电产业环境外部成本进行量化评估；通过敏感性分析、"Cheap talk script" 等方法减少非市场评估中的不确定性；基于公平与效率原则构建发电产业减少环境外部性的政策模型；针对不同节能减排的政策模型设计，对发电产业环境外部性进行仿真预测。

中国经济在快速发展过程中产生了严重的环境外部性，为了制定更为有效的环境管制政策，需要对环境污染产生的外部成本进行定量化分析。本项目研究主要完成以下内容：（1）燃煤发电的环境外部性定量化评估，分别基于选择模型方法和全生命周期法进行了分析；（2）风力发电的环境外部性分析，主要基于全生命周期法进行分析；（3）生物质发电的环境外部性定量化评估，基于选择模型方法进行分析，研究中将生物质发电进一步细分为三种形式：农林生物质，沼气发电和垃圾发电；（4）分析了影响环境改善支付意愿水平的社会经济因素；（5）研究了提高非市场评估结果可靠性和有效性的方法。.通过对以上内容的研究，得到以下结论：（1）中国燃煤发电的环境外部成本在0.20元/kWh~0.30元/kWh。（2）通过生物质发电来替代燃煤发电将环境改善到最佳的状态，总可支付意愿是44.32元/月，即生物质发电的环境外部价值是0.33元/kWh。（3）受访者愿意为农林生物质发电支付最高的额外费用，接下来是沼气发电，相对最不受欢迎的生物质发电类型是垃圾发电。（4）影响居民用户支付意愿选择的社会经济因素包括环境意识、收入水平、教育程度、年龄因素、性别差异以及是否有孩子等。（5）基于生命周期法的计算结果显示，相比燃煤发电的风力发电的环境外部价值0.197元/kWh。（6）通过选择集和替代选项数量合理组合能够有效提高非市场评估的有效性和可靠性，替代选项最好为3个以下，选择集的个数最好控制在20个左右；同时，图文并茂的方式并非适用于所有的非市场评估。本课题研究成果对中国电力产业环境管制政策的制定具有重要指导意义，并对提高非市场评估方法的有效性和可靠性具有借鉴意义。