中国农地流转的综合效益评价：基于"双SE"框架

Farmland circulation that relates to the macro-economy efficiency, social development, ecological civilization and micro-country governance is not only one of the important ways to solve the "the issue of agriculture, rural areas and peasants ", but also to achieve the scale operation of farmland and agricultural modernization. Our research aims at comprehensive benefits maximization of farmland circulation. From the perspective of generalized benefit, we try to build a "double SE" framework that is based on theory analysis, including benefits of economy, society, ecology and public satisfaction, to evaluate the farmland circulation benefits. Firstly, we use the CD variation function to evaluate the farmland circulation economical benefits, apply PDLs model, threshold model and SYS-GMM panel model that are on the basis of welfare measure to evaluate its social effects, assess the farmland circulation ecological efficiency and deconstruct its ecological benefits, on the basis of a eocological service value theory XL and DEA method, and apply Fornell method and Likert scale model to investigate the public satisfaction. On the basis of four-dimensional evaluation, then we make a comprehensive assessment on the farmland circulation benefits by factor analysis, and the influencing factors by Tobit model. From the study above, we concentrate on the allocation and coordination of the farmland circulation benefits, improvement of the structure of farmland governance right, achievement of the regional farmland benefits, choices of the farmland operation modes. Finally, policy suggestions related are put forth.

农地流转是实现农地规模化经营、农业现代化和解决"三农"问题的重要途径之一，关涉宏观经济效率、社会发展、生态文明与微观乡村治理。课题瞄准农地流转综合效益最大化目标，从广义效益出发，在理论分析基础上，构建一个包含经济效益、社会效益、生态效益和公众满意度的"双SE"框架，对农地流转的效益进行四个维度评价。首先，运用CD变异函数评价农地流转的经济效益；在福利测度基础上运用PDLs模型、门槛模型和SYS-GMM面板模型从三个视角评价其社会效应；基于XL生态服务价值理论和DEA测度生态效益，并解构生态效益；运用费耐尔方法和李克特量表法调查评价公众满意度。在四维评价的基础上，运用因子分析法对农地流转效益进行综合评价，并运用Tobit模型分析其影响因素。基于以上研究，重点探讨农地流转效益的分配和协调、完善农地治权结构、农地流转效益的区域实现、农业经营模式选择四个效益优化路径，并提出相关政策建议。

土地规模过小、细碎化程度高是长期以来妨碍我国农村社会发展的突出问题。农地流转是实现农地规模化经营和解决“三农”问题的重要途径之一，是当前农业现代化、工业化和城市化同步推进的客观要求。项目按照计划，以农地流转综合效益最大化为目标，构建包含经济效益、社会效益、生态效益和公众满意度的“双SE”框架，对农地流转的效益进行了四个维度评价。通过资料整理、实地调研、问卷调查等方式，形成了农地流转效益分析的数据库，在此基础上运用多种现代计量经济分析方法，对农地流转多维效益进行了规范分析和实证研究，提出了农地流转效益的分配和协调、完善农地治权结构、农地流转效益的区域实现、农业经营模式选择四个效益的优化路径。具体研究中发现：其一，经济效益体现在农地流转对农业结构调整、农业现代化、国家粮食安全和农民增收等方面的作用，在观察2005~2014年全国30个省份数据后，发现农地流转在5%显著性水平上对农业集约化发展产生正影响，有利于高产农业发展和农业机械化水平提高；其二，社会效益体现在农地流转对农村剩余劳动力非农就业、农村社会保障、农民权益以及福利变化等方面的影响上，特别是在湖南省贫困地区的研究表明，农地流转对贫困发生率的弹性系数为-0.02，所以合理加大贫困地区农地流转，有助于贫困地区的经济发展与稳定脱贫；其三，农村土地流转影响农村生态环境，进而影响农业发展的可持续性，具有明显的生态效应，定量分析表明在经济发达的东部或粮食非主产区，农地流转显著影响了农业可持续性发展。其四，农地流转中存在“非粮化”、“非农化”现象，防范农地流转过程中资本增密和资本深化的风险，是确保农地流转效益充分体现的重要任务，建议构建基于“经济、社会、政治和生态”四维资本增密风险框架。未来的研究中，本项目认为应将农地流转置于我国农业供给侧结构性改革框架中，在乡村振兴大环境下稳步推进农地适度流转，提升农地流转的农业结构优化效应，实现农地流转、三农转型效应的联动。