基于异构信息融合的长三角地区社会信用体系建设绩效评价及提升措施研究

The local construction of social credibility system is an important mission in the “13th five plan”, in which the performance evaluation and its improvement measures are highly concerted by the society. In this proposal, the provinces and important area in the Yangtze River delta region are selected to appraise their constructive performances of social credibility system with multi-stage decision-making method. The purpose of this proposal is trying to analyze the current state and potential problems and design improvement measures with effect prediction, which can help the governments design developing plan to the social credibility system of Yangtze River delta region in the future. Specifically, a survey to the current constructive situation of Yangtze River delta region is conducted following the cluster results according to area similarity. Additionally, the multi-source survey information is classified and refined according to the evaluation indexes. Moreover, the transferring rule and merge mechanism is developed to aggregate the annual constructive performances of the above areas. Furthermore, according to the decision-making situation with diffident expert groups in diffident stages, the case-based reasoning technology and psychological measurement are utilized to confirm and revise the personal appraisal information, which is a useful development to the multi-stage decision-making theory. Besides, the improvement measures of social credibility system in the Yangtze River delta region are studied, referring to the appraisal results and international analogical analysis. At last, a system dynamic model is designed to simulate the effects of the above measures and their combinations, which can provide the theoretical support to the stable and healthy development of social credibility system in the Yangtze River delta region.

社会信用体系建设是我国”十三五”规划的重要内容，建设效果的评价工作和提升措施备受瞩目。本课题选取长三角省级行政区及重点调研区域的社会信用体系建设情况为研究对象，对长三角社会信用体系建设效果开展多阶段评价研究，旨在揭示建设现状和问题，分析完善措施及其作用效果，为制定未来发展规划提供政策参考。根据区域相似性聚类结果，调查长三角社会信用体系建设情况，对多源调研信息进行分类约简；研究社会信用体系建设异构绩效信息的转化规则和融合机理，动态集结年度建设效果信息，真实反映区域建设的真实表现；针对差异化评审团队的决策情形，结合案例推理和心理测度技术，测算并修正异质群体的主观评价信息，对多阶段决策方法进行有益拓展；根据评价结果和国际先进经验，研究社会信用体系提升措施；结合系统动力学模型，验证改善措施的实施效果和组合效应，为长三角地区社会信用体系健康、稳定的发展提供理论支持。

本课题选取长三角省级行政区社会信用体系建设情况为研究对象，按照“现状调研-多阶段绩效评价-改善措施设计-系统动力学仿真”的思路，研究了上海市、江苏省和浙江省在社会信用体系建设历程、特点、成就、建设成效和影响因素。具体而言，在对长三角两省一市社会信用体系建设历程和特点进行广泛调研的基础上，分析社会信用体系的框架及基本要素，为后续设计评价指标体系和有针对性地搜集绩效数据指明方向。广泛搜集资料，分析长三角主要省市社会信用体系建设现状，掌握第一手数据资料。设计社会信用体系建设评价指标体系，分别在决策依据信息和双重信息两种信息依据下评估长三角主要省市在“十二五”期间社会信用体系建设绩效，总结经验，分析不足。结合系统动力学模型，验证改善措施的实施效果和组合效应，为长三角地区社会信用体系健康、稳定的发展提供理论支持。.以长三角区域为对象进行社会信用体系建设绩效评估，有利于深入了解长三角区域信用体系建设的现状和成果，为其他地区构建区域一体化社会信用体系提供建议。上海、江苏和浙江三省市在社会信用体系建设历程中走在前列，积累了大量的研究成果和丰富的实际经验。三个省市由于经济环境、社会环境等方面的差异使得社会信用体系构建的进度、节奏以及效果体现均有不同。综合考虑专家整体评价意见和各属性下的细化表现能够全面反映社会信用体系建设工作的实施效果。