新疆生态脆弱区农户退耕的响应追踪、行为调适与过程激励研究

The Project of Conversion of Cropland to Forest is the key ecological forestry project that promote the natural environment restoration, multi increasing of farmers income, rural industrial structure adjustment and enhancing of forestry poverty alleviation. The steady operation of the new Project of Conversion of Cropland to Forest originates from the strengthening of participate willingness, appropriate project selection and the optimization of forestry production and management behavior of the converted farmers. From the micro perspective of farmers, based on the policy implications of new Project of Conversion of Cropland to Forest, the paper dynamically tracks the farmers' response behaviors in the new Project of Conversion of Cropland to Forest in Xinjiang province, and uses the Embedded Social Structure Model to analyze the general factors of farmers' response behaviors. Through the CVM questionnaire investigation, the paper uses SPIKE model to explain the real preference and payment strategies of participate willingness, project selection and forestry production and management behavior. The paper establishes the adjustment standard of the farmers' response behaviors through the scenario simulations, achieves the standardization and suitability of farmers' participate willingness, project selection and forestry production and management behavior; and continuously motivates the farmers' response behaviors in the new Project of Conversion of Cropland to Forest in Xinjiang province, in order to achieve the co-producing of ecological products and economic products in the Project of Conversion of Cropland to Forest, in order to promote the operation performance of the new Project of Conversion of Cropland to Forest in Xinjiang Ecological Fragile Area.

退耕还林工程是推动生态脆弱区自然环境修复、农户多维增收、农村产业结构调整、林业扶贫能力提升的重点生态工程。退耕农户的参与意愿强化、适宜退耕项目选择、林业生产经营行为优化成为新一轮退耕还林工程稳态运行的根本保证。本项目从退耕农户的微观视角，基于新一轮退耕还林工程的政策意涵，动态跟踪新疆新一轮退耕还林工程的退耕农户响应行为，并应用嵌入性社会结构模型分析退耕农户响应行为的一般性影响因素；通过CVM问卷调查，应用SPIKE模型阐释退耕农户参与意愿、退耕项目选择、退耕林业生产经营等响应行为的真实偏好强度与支付策略；通过多维情境模拟法设置退耕响应行为的调适标准，推动农户退耕参与意愿、退耕生产项目选择、退耕林业生态经营方式的规范化与适宜化，并据此对新疆生态脆弱区退耕农户响应行为进行全过程激励，以实现退耕还林工程生态产品与经济产品的协同生产，提升新疆生态脆弱区新一轮退耕还林工程的运行绩效。

新一轮退耕还林工程是有效增强瘠薄土地产出能力、充分释放生态脆弱区林业发展潜能、积极拓宽农户增收渠道的林业重点生态工程。农户是退耕还林工程运行的微观主体，普遍对退耕还林工程具有积极认知与广泛认同；但农户个体特质、家庭资源禀赋、区域外部环境、政策引导示范效用的差异，使农户参与响应呈现多元化分异。本项目以新疆生态脆弱区为例，从农户风险感知、生计资本、政策认知、贫困尺度、生态理性、政策改进与外部支持等视角，多视角、多层次、多尺度地分析了新一轮退耕还林工程的农户参与意愿与响应行为。本项目从农户营林决策、退耕后生计分化、退耕地合作经营等方面，分析了农户退耕地经营行为、退耕后可持续生计行为、非农就业等农户退耕成果保持意愿的关系，并通过政策执行方式、补偿框架改进、参与自愿性等政策改进角度，林业合作经营、退耕配套扶持政策、乡村基层治理能力等外部支持角度，提出巩固新疆新一轮退耕还林工程成果的可行性建议与退耕还林工程政策框架的改进建议。本项目提出了新一轮退耕还林工程农户参与响应的激励机制，即通过建立退耕政策宣传引导、退耕补偿标准优化、退耕配套政策完善等内生性激励机制，建立拓宽非农就业渠道、提升非农就业能力等保障性激励机制；加快林业生产技能培训、完善退耕农户风险管理体系、强化政府技术与资金支持等外部性激励，以实现新疆生态脆弱区新一轮退耕还林工程的健康、有序、稳固、高效运行。本项目为合理促发工程区农户的退耕参与意愿，推动农户能动理性地制定退耕参与响应决策，调整优化新一轮退耕还林工程政策等提供信息依据。