替代亦或互补：虚拟与现实社会网络对农民电商创业的影响研究

Farmer’s entrepreneurship, as an important force which can contribute to reducing poverty, increasing income and promoting employment , has attracted great attention among the academia and government. But previous researches mainly focus on the differences among different farmer entrepreneurship group based on trait theory and ignore the barriers to entry, behavior selection and performance differences among different farmers' entrepreneurship field. On the basis of social network, which is a key factor influencing farmer entrepreneurship, most studies just focused on real social network but ignoring the virtual social network. Therefore, this study starts with the farmers' E-Commerce Entrepreneurship，and has several specific objectives. The first is to analyze and reveal the impact mechanism of the substitution effect and complementary effect between the real social network and the virtual social network on farmer entrepreneurship behavior by using literature measurement method. The second objective is to empirically examine the influence mechanism of the real social network, the virtual social network and their interaction effects on Farmers' E-Commerce Entrepreneurship’s intention, conduct and performance by comprehensively using TOPSIS model, Probit model, and quintile regression model according to the logic of intention-conduct-performance. Third, we aim to construct a policy model by using case studies from the perspective of promoting the better development of farmers’ real social network and virtual reality and social network, in order to better mine and cultivate the entrepreneurial talent electricity supplier and provide policy enlightenments for promoting better development of e-commerce in rural areas.

农民创业是减贫增收和带动就业的重要力量，引起学界和政府极大关注。但以往研究大多关注特质论基础上不同农民创业群体差异性，忽视农民创业领域差异所带来的创业行为差异；在对社会网络这一创业关键要素的考量上，大多关注现实社会网络忽视了虚拟社会网络。因此研究V&R（虚拟与现实）社会网络在电商这一特定农民创业领域中的替代与互补效应是一种新尝试。为此，本项目首先利用客观文献计量法揭示V&R社会网络间的替代与互补效应对农民电商创业影响的作用机理；其次遵循“意愿-行为-绩效”逻辑思路，先后运用TOPSIS方法、Probit模型和分位数回归模型等方法实证考察V&R社会网络及其交互效应对农民电商创业意愿、行为及绩效的影响方向、程度与作用大小；最后在典型案例基础上，从发展农民V&R社会网络两方面构建政府激励农民电商创业的政策模型，以期为更好的挖掘和培育农民电商创业人才及推动电子商务在农村深入发展提供决策依据。

本项目基于农民创业理论、行为决策理论和电子商务理论，利用定性与定量相结合的研究方法，遵循“意愿-行为-绩效”逻辑思路，重点考察了农民电商创业的发展现状。首先，梳理总结了关于农民创业、社会网络、农村电商等领域的研究现状、发展动态及其趋势，为研究的开展奠定理论基础；其次，重点揭示社会网络因素中的以地缘和血缘为基础的传统现实社会网络和突破时空限制的虚拟社会网络对农民电商创业意愿的影响方向、程度和作用机理；再次，考察农民电商创业行为选择、影响因素以及影响方向和程度；最后，考察现实与虚拟社会网络对农民电商创业绩效的影响方向、程度和作用机理。在此基础上，立足于农户、农民电商创业者、政府等不同主体，提出推动我国农村电商发展的相关政策建议，为政府制定有效的引导政策提供借鉴和参考。此外，在项目研究过程中，项目组发现随着农村电子商务的蓬勃发展，地理标志农产品有望借助产品优势，实行品牌化发展战略，突破地域限制，拓展市场半径。但是调查发现消费者网购地理标志农产品的意愿和行为存在一定的偏差。根据这一问题，项目组结合中国市场环境，探讨偏差产生的原因，丰富了项目的研究成果。总的来看，本项目在研究过程中，在计划书既定目标的基础之上进行了一定程度的拓展，共完成论文9篇，其中正式发表8篇，1篇已录用，CSSCI或扩展版6篇；共培养3名硕士生及多名本科生，组织项目成员参与各种学术交流活动，达到了预期目标。