中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间产业转移的节能减排效应

Both rapid accumulation of wealth and beautiful ecological environment are the common aspirations and the biggest challenges for China and countries in the Belt and Road initiation area. Will the industrial transfer in the process of Belt and Road construction help all countries achieve a win-win goal of economy and environment? This is an important geological issue. This project intends to focus on the impact of industrial transfer between China and countries in the Belt and Road initiation area on energy saving and carbon emissions reduction. The contents of project are organized as follows: Firstly, we will build a theoretical framework to systematically analyze the influence mechanism of industrial transfer between countries on energy saving and carbon emissions reduction. Secondly, we will analyze the characteristics of industrial transfer between China and countries in the Belt and Road initiation area, and further measure the effect of industrial transfer on their energy consumption and carbon emission intensity using input-output analysis, life-cycle assessment, and structural decomposition analysis methods. Finally, we will explore the co-operation mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction between China and countries in the Belt and Road initiation area, in the view of industrial transfer. The project has an important scientific significance for study on the construction of Belt and Road. Further, in terms of social practice, the implementation of this project can provide a basis for scientific evaluation of the construction effect of Belt and Road initiation, and making policies for the construction of green Belt and Road.

实现财富快速积累并拥有美好生态环境，是中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的共同诉求和最大挑战。“一带一路”建设过程中的产业转移，是否有助于各国实现经济和环境的双赢目标？这是值得地理学界深入研究的重要议题。本项目拟聚焦于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间产业转移的节能减排效应进行研究，基本思路如下：首先系统剖析产业转移对转出地和承接地节能减排的影响机理；然后对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间产业转移特征进行分析，并进一步综合运用投入产出分析、生命周期评价及结构分解分析等方法，计量产业转移对各国能耗和碳排放强度的影响效应；最后探讨产业转移视角下，中国与“一带一路”沿线国家节能减排合作机制。从科学意义上讲，本项目的开展可以为“一带一路”理论框架构建添砖加瓦。从社会实践意义来讲，本项目的开展可以为科学评价“一带一路”建设效果，以及绿色“一带一路”建设政策制定提供决策依据。

随着“一带一路”倡议的影响力日益扩大，“一带一路”建设过程中的产业转移，是否有助于各国实现经济和环境的双赢，成为学术界讨论的焦点。基于此，本项目聚焦于中国和“一带一路”沿线国家间产业转移的节能减排效应进行研究。首先从理论上剖析产业转移对转出国和承接国经济发展、能源消费和碳排放的影响机理；然后运用投入产出分析方法和经济计量分析方法，实证测度了与中国开展投资和贸易合作对“一带一路”沿线国家的经济增长、碳排放总量和强度的具体影响，评估了中国和“一带一路”沿线国家间经济和碳排放的双向溢出效应；最后探讨了产业转移视角下，中国和“一带一路”沿线国家深化贸易和投资合作，携手应对气候变化的政策措施。理论分析结果表明，无论是对转出国还是承接国而言，产业转移所产生的经济效应、能源消费和碳排放效应，都既有可能为正，也有可能为负。实证分析结果表明，中国直接投资既可以促进“一带一路”沿线国家的经济增长，也有助于“一带一路”沿线国家的碳减排；与中国开展贸易合作缩小了“一带一路”沿线地区的碳排放强度区域差异，并且与中国开展贸易和投资合作能够明显加快其碳强度收敛速度；由于存在密切的贸易往来，所以中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间存在双向的经济和碳排放溢出效应。基于上述发现，提出加强中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间投资和贸易合作的同时注重优化结构，是促进双方经济和环境双赢的重要基础；中国与“一带一路”沿线国家合作开发可再生能源，是双方携手应对气候变化的重要举措。研究结论有望为绿色“一带一路”建设和国际气候合作提供科学借鉴和决策参考。