中国食糖产业功能区时空格局分异、集聚效应及其优化研究

The sugar industry is an important component of the planting industry. At the same time,it is a complicated system engineering to identify its temporal and spatial agglomeration level, to analyze the formation mechanism, to evaluate the agglomeration effect and to optimize the planting structure. Under the background of supply side reform, how to ensure the stable supply of sugar and timely adjustment of regional layout strategy have important theoretical and practical significance. We reviewed the literature at home and abroad, collected a series of sugar industry data and tried to answer the following questions: What is the space-time agglomeration feature of the sugar industry functional area? What is the effect of the sugar industry agglomeration? What is the mechanism for the formation of sugar industry agglomeration? Are there any associations between functional areas? How to optimize the industrial function area construction? In order to study the spatial and temporal pattern of the functional area of the sugar industry, we carried out the research based on Gompertz model, exploratory spatial data analysis and elastic analysis method. Then, we measured the efficiency of the sugar industry agglomeration, based on DEA-Moran's I model, spatial geography model, shift-share method and system dynamics. After that, we studied the driving mechanism of the functional area agglomeration of the sugar industry based on the Nerlove supply behavior model and discussed the association and spillover effects at the provincial level based on the BEKK-GARCH model. Finally, on the basis of the above research, the paper puts forward the optimal adjustment route and institutional arrangement of the functional area of sugar industry.

食糖作为国内种植业中一个重要组成，其产业功能区时空分异格局、集聚形成机理、效应评估及种植结构优化是项复杂的系统工程。供给侧改革形势下，如何确保食糖供给稳定、及时调整产业政策与区域布局策略有重要的理论与现实意义。本研究查阅国内外文献资料、收集糖料基础数据，遵循产业功能区“存在怎样的集聚特征？”→“会引致何种集聚效应？”→“集聚是如何形成的？”→“是否存在区域关联与溢出？”→“如何优化产业布局与功能区建设？”的逻辑展开研究。首先，采用Gompertz模型、探索性空间数据及弹性分析研究食糖产业功能区集聚特征；其次，基于DEA-Moran’s I模型、空间地理模型、Shift-Share Method及系统动力学测算集聚效率；再次，基于Nerlove供给行为模型研究集聚驱动机理；最后，利用BEKK-GARCH类模型探讨省域层面的关联与溢出效应，并有针对性的提出食糖产业功能区优化调整路径与制度安排。

食糖是国内种植业一个重要组成，其产业功能区时空分异格局、集聚形成与效应评估、产业市场安全、种植结构优化是项复杂的系统工程。供给侧改革形势下，如何确保食糖供给稳定、及时调整产业政策与区域布局策略有重要理论与现实意义。本项目查阅国内外文献资料、收集糖料基础数据，遵循产业功能区“存在怎样的时空格局分异特征？”→“集聚是如何形成的？”→“是否存在区域关联与溢出？”→“如何优化产业布局？”的逻辑展开研究。首先，采用空间洛伦兹曲线的生产集中化指数从产业整体和品种细分视角分别研究食糖产业功能区集聚特征与动态演进趋势；其次，基于LMDI模型测算时空集聚影响因子及要素贡献程度；再次，基于BEKK-GARCH、ARDL模型探讨省域关联与溢出效应，利用PPM模型科学诊断糖价系统结构性突变。主要研究结论：第一，1978年以来糖料整体生产逐步向优势区域集中并呈现西移趋势，生产集中度明显提高，呈现“蔗多菜少”态势；甘蔗逐步向包括广西和云南等西南优势区域集中，集中化程度明显优于甜菜并呈“Ｕ”形轨迹；甜菜向新疆、内蒙古等西北产区迁移，集中化为“上升-下降-上升-下降-上升”类“Ｍ”形波浪式演进。第二，不同视角下测算的糖料生产时空格局演变因素分解效应存在显著差异：从产业整体看，因科技进步引致的单产提升是糖料总产增长根本原因；从作物构成看，甘蔗播面扩大是引致糖料总产增加首要因素，其次为甘蔗与甜菜单产效益，而甜菜播面效应延缓了糖料总产提速；从区域布局看，广西、云南、新疆、海南及贵州等产量猛增取决于播面与单产提升双因素，其余各省产量变化均由单一因素主导。第三，21世纪以来糖价传导机制正发生新变革，经历６次非周期性、非规律性结构性异常突变；包括对未来价格理性预期在内的传统驱动因素仍是影响糖价波动的重要因素，与此同时，全球化、金融化、能源化等新型冲击势力给糖业安全带来不容小觑的威胁。最后，有针对性的提出食糖产业功能区优化调整路径与制度安排。