考虑消费者行为和政府激励政策的新能源汽车置换与回收策略研究

The new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has already attracted great attention of the government, practitioners and researchers for its product feature, special policy background and urgency of strategic development. Focusing on the phenomena of small market share in sales stage, non-price and non-market of old vehicles in replacement stage, chaos of the power battery recycling market in recycling stage and severity waste of resource in reuse stage in new energy vehicle domain, we refine research questions arising in different development phase of NEV. Four important ways are considered that is the replacement of tradition gasoline vehicle with NEV, the replacement of used NEV with new improved product, and the recycling and cascade utilization of used batteries from NEV to solve above problem. To optimize the enterprise operational decision and government incentive policy, the theories of consumer utility, behavioral operations, game, welfare economic are used to analyze the non-cooperative dynamic game between enterprise and government. Firstly, effect of heterogeneous consumers’ psychological factors of inertia, range anxiety, resale anxiety, low-carbon awareness and reuse sensitivity on personal purchase decision is analyzed. Secondly, the reaction mechanism is revealed between consumer behavior and enterprise operational decision, government incentive scheme. Last but not least, this project explores the effect of consumer behavior on enterprise optimal decision, government optimal strategy, economic benefits, environmental impacts and social welfare further theoretically and empirically. The research results provide not only a theoretical reference to practical operation for NEV enterprise, but also better theoretical advice to balance the economic benefits and environment impacts for government.

新能源汽车行业凭借其产品特性、独特的政策背景和战略发展的紧迫性，已成为政府、业界和学术界关注的重点领域。本项目针对新能源汽车销售阶段市场份额小、置换阶段二手车的无价无市、回收阶段电池回收市场混乱和再利用阶段资源浪费严重等现象，提出燃油车置换新能源汽车、新能源汽车置换升级、动力电池回收与梯次利用四种运营模式解决不同阶段的问题。以优化企业运营决策和政府激励策略为动机，运用消费者效用理论、行为运作理论、博弈论、福利经济学等研究方法，建立企业与政府非合作动态博弈模型，分析消费者消费惯性、里程和转售焦虑、低碳关注度和再利用敏感度等心理因素对消费者购买决策的影响，揭示消费者行为与企业决策、政府激励政策相互作用机理，探索不同运营模式下消费者行为对企业和政府最优策略、经济效益、环境效应以及社会福利的影响。研究结果可以为新能源汽车企业实践运作提供理论参考，也能为政府平衡环境效应与经济效益提供理论建议。

本项目从新能源汽车发展过程中阻碍产业可持续的问题入手，按照“销售阶段→置换阶段→回收阶段→再利用阶段”四个层级逐步推进，将消费者行为与企业运营管理、政府制定政策相联系，深入探究不同运营模式下消费者行为对企业决策和政府激励策略的影响。本项目针对异质性消费者的低碳关注度和消费惯性等心理因素，刻画消费者行为与产品市场需求的内在联系，建立政府与企业的stackelberg博弈模型,分析得到不同市场结构下政府和企业博弈的均衡解，并对理论分析结果通过数值实验的方法进行验证和进一步探索。研究发现，与垄断市场相比，新能源汽车的双寡头市场将带来更大的环境污染和更低的社会福利；定额补贴与价格折扣补贴策略下消费者有效价格、新能源汽车的普及率以及社会福利相同，但政府在价格折扣激励策略下的支出成本要高于定额补贴激励策略。结论为企业实践运作提供理论参考，也为政府更好的平衡环境效应与经济效益提出理论建议，有效促进新能源汽车的可持续发展。