基于构造控灾机理的采煤沉陷灾变预警基础研究

A deep analysis will be done to observe the results of surface moving, nonlinear characteristics of mining subsidence curve obtained from physical and numerical simulation experiment in some coal face of Shaanxi and Xinjiang coal mining area. The tectonic setting elements in coal mining area will be divided into structural medium, structural shape, structural interface and tectonic stress. One of these elements' influence on ground movement and deformation will be studied by physical and numerical simulation experiment, also the coupling experiment between these elements will be done. The results of simulation experiment will be analyzed by some mathematic modeling methods, such as multivariate nonlinear regression, support vector machine, and catastrophe theory, also by some necessarily mechanical analysis. And then, mining subsidence's quantitative relationship with tectonic setting elements will be established, and its rules of occurrence, development and disaster mechanism in specific geological condition will be revealed. The quantitative prediction models of mining subsidence in typical coal mining area with each own tectonic setting will be constructed. At last, the reasonable grading evaluation criteria and evaluation index system of bearing capacity of geological environment in coal mining area will be build, and the key algorithms of software for evaluating bearing capacity and early warning mining subsidence disaster will be designed. All of these study will provide geological basis and technical support for effective prevention and control mining subsidence disaster.

拟通过对陕西、新疆等省区部分采煤工作面地表岩移观测资料和物理、数值模拟实验得到的地表下沉曲线非线性特征的深入分析，煤矿区构造环境要素（构造介质、构造形态、构造界面、构造应力）对地表移动变形影响程度的单因素物理模拟与数值试验，构造环境要素与地表移动变形的耦合试验，数学（多元非线性回归、支持向量机、突变理论）建模与力学分析，研究煤矿区构造环境各要素与采煤沉陷之间的量化关系，揭示特定地质条件下采煤沉陷的发生、发展规律以及灾变机理，构建处于不同构造环境中的典型煤矿区采煤沉陷的量化预计模型，建立合理的煤矿区地质环境承载能力分级评价标准和评价指标体系，研究设计煤矿区地质环境承载能力评价和采煤沉陷灾害预警软件的关键算法，为有效预防和控制采煤沉陷灾害提供地质依据和决策技术支持。

通过对陕西、新疆等省区部分采煤工作面地表岩移观测和物理、数值模拟实验得到的地表下沉曲线非线性特征的深入分析，煤矿区构造环境要素（构造介质、构造形态、构造界面、构造应力）对地表移动变形影响程度的单因素物理模拟与数值试验，构造环境要素与地表移动变形的耦合实验，数学（多元非线性回归、支持向量机、突变理论）建模与力学分析，研究煤矿区构造环境各要素与采煤沉陷之间的量化关系，揭示特定地质条件下采煤沉陷的发生、发展规律以及灾变机理，构建处于不同构造环境中的典型煤矿区采煤沉陷的量化预计模型，建立合理的煤矿区地质环境承载能力分级评价标准和评价指标体系，研究设计煤矿区地质环境承载能力评价和采煤沉陷灾害预警软件的关键算法，为有效预防和控制采煤沉陷灾害提供地质依据和决策技术支持。