西辽河流域玉米流动过程及其水土资源平衡效应研究

Resources flow process and its effects analysis is one of the key frontiers of Resources Science. Current research works put more emphasis on the flow process discussion from either transverse (special or inter-regional) or vertical (inter-industrial) perspective, with the effects evaluation studies usually limited to single factor. Based on our previous exploratory analysis funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Small Grants for One Year), this project, with the research contents and objectives more focused, will keep on carrying out a multi-scale and multi-element investigation in the flow process of maize in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 in the Xiliaohe River Basin (XRB), located in the agro-pastoral transitional zone, China from both transverse and vertical perspectives, and revealing the corresponding features and driving mechanisms. A land-water (L&W) resources balance model will be established to examine the regional characteristics and developing mechanism of L&W balance relationship. Then, the L&W integrated effects of maize flow process during 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 will be quantitatively evaluated and, the potential impacts of maize producing industry on the L&W balance in XRB will also be assessed through scenarios analysis in a systematic view. Finally, related adapting strategies will be put forward to promote coordinated development between L&W resources utilization and socio-economy in this region.

资源流动过程及其效应研究是资源科学研究的前沿领域，已有研究和成果多在横向或纵向框架下分别开展流动过程研究，效应评估多集中于对单一要素影响的分析。基于此，本研究在国家自然科学基金1年期小额前期探索项目的资助下，凝练研究目标、深化研究内容，以中国战略性作物资源玉米为研究对象，以位于农牧交错带的玉米主产区――西辽河流域为案例区，基于纵向与横向耦合视角，多尺度、多要素研究2000/2005/2010/2015年西辽河流域玉米流动过程，揭示玉米流动的规律与驱动机制；建立水土资源平衡模型，认识西辽河流域水土资源平衡关系的地域特征与形成机制；在此基础上，从系统角度出发，定量评价2000/2005/2010/2015年西辽河流域玉米流动的水土资源综合效应，情景分析玉米产业发展对水土资源平衡关系的可能影响并提出适应性对策，为促进流域水土资源利用与社会经济协调发展提供科学依据与决策支持。

本研究以中国战略性作物资源玉米为研究对象，以位于农牧交错带的玉米主产区――西辽河流域为案例区，基于资源流动的视角，多尺度、多要素研究分析了2000/2005/2010/2015 年西辽河流域玉米流动过程，揭示了玉米流动的规律与驱动机制；建立了水土资源平衡模型，认识了西辽河流域水土资源平衡关系的地域特征与形成机制；在此基础上，从系统角度出发，定量评价了2000/2005/2010/2015 年西辽河流域玉米流动的水土资源综合效应，情景分析了玉米产业发展对水土资源平衡关系的可能影响并提出适应性对策，为促进流域水土资源利用与社会经济协调发展提供了科学依据与决策支持。