林农信任对林地流转契约选择的影响机制研究

The contract of forestland transfer has been caught in the dilemma of high default rate and low stability in long time, which seriously hindered the process of spreading moderate scale management and restricted forestry sustainable development. The trust of household plays an important role in forestland transfer contract choice and stability, but its influence mechanism are still unclear. This study develops a logic line of households’ trust, perceived risk/perceived benefits and forestland transfer contract to analysis. Based on the household survey data of Sanming city, Fujian province and combined the situation of forestland transfer in southern collective forest areas, the study firstly measures households’ trust level by employing trust game and discusses its influencing factors. Additionally, this study analyses the households’ trust impact on forestland transfer contractual choice by the three-stage least square model with fully consideration the interaction effect of contractual choice (form, the period, rent, scale and object), and also estimates the mediating effects of perceived risk/perceived benefits. Finally, we explores the stable strategy for high trust relationship within the two sides of forestland transfer contract. The finding is expected to get new cognition of the trust of household and forestland transfer contractual choice, and can provide policy guidance and decision suggestions for the healthy development of forestland transfer marketing in southern collective forest areas.

林地流转契约长期存在违约率高、稳定性低的困境，严重威胁了林业适度规模经营的进程，制约了林业可持续发展。林农信任对于林地流转契约选择及稳定性具有重要作用，但其影响的内在机制尚不清晰。本研究拟以林农信任→感知风险/感知收益→契约选择为逻辑主线，结合我国南方集体林区林地流转的现状，基于福建省三明市林农调查数据，首先，运用信任博弈实验测度林农信任水平，并探讨其影响因素，进一步，在充分考虑契约选择（契约形式、契约期限、流转租金、支付方式、流转规模、流转对象）内在交互效应的基础上，采用三阶段联立方程模型分析林农信任对林地流转契约选择的作用机制，并通过中介效应模型揭示感知风险/感知收益的中介作用。最后，探索林地流转契约双方高信任稳定策略的实现路径。研究成果有助于就林农信任和林地流转契约选择问题取得新认识，可为南方集体林区林地流转市场的健康发展提供政策指导与决策支持。

林农信任对于林地流转契约选择及稳定性具有重要作用，但其影响的内在机制尚不清晰。本课题基于行为经济学和实验经济学相关理论，对南方典型集体林区福建省三明市林农林地流转行为进行研究。首先在理论上探究了林农信任对于林地流转契约选择的作用机制以及契约选择属性的内在影响机制。其次，在实证分析中，通过信任博弈实验定量测度了林农信任水平，运用3SLS联立方程模型揭示林农信任对林地流转契约选择的影响，深入剖析了感知成本与林农信任对林地流转契约选择的交互作用。最后，将林农信任动态演化过程与林地流转契约稳定性相结合，运用演化博弈的方法，挖掘了新型林业经营主体和农户在林地流转过程中最优契约安排的实现路径。结果表明：林农信任水平在5%的显著性水平上对林地流转规模、流转期限、流转租金有正影响；林地流转规模和流转期限对流转租金有显著负影响。林农信任水平越高，感知成本对林地流转期限、流转规模、流转价格的影响越强。林地流转契约的稳定性受政府补贴、违约罚款、制度信任和人际信任等因素的影响，政府可通过制定合理奖惩机制，规范契约双方的履约行为。本课题研究成果对理解林地流转市场运行提供了新视角，并提出了相应的政策建议：深化完善集体林权流转管理制度、打造区域林业产权交易平台以及加强林地流转市场信用体系建设。