面向突发事件预防的空管技术保障系统扩展规划研究

In order to upgrade the ability of air traffic management system for emergency prevention, the expansion planning and location decision-making theory and method of air traffic management technical support system are investigated by studying the complex network characteristic analysis and network modeling method and the business continuity analysis under the effect of emergency. Firstly, the space network model is constructed based on route structure under the coverage of the navigation, communication and surveillance facilities in this system. Some new network index definitions and measures for the constructed model are proposed, such as the betweenness and clustering coefficient for conducting the complex network-based characteristic analysis. And then, the fault model and risk index system for this system are established, considering different emergency categories and different traffic flow levels. The business continuity analysis under the effect of emergency is provided by complex network model. Lastly, the emergency risk assessment measures and the expansion planning model of air traffic management technical support system based on the complex space network model are provided for after analyzing the old and new facilitties in this system. And then the location decision-making of the new facilitties is proposed. This research will provide theory base for the expansion planning of air traffic management technical support system, and have practical significance for reducing the influence of emergency to air traffic management system support ability and ensuring the continuous safety of air traffic.

为提高空管系统应对突发事件的能力，课题通过研究空管技术保障系统的复杂网络特征分析与建模、系统在突发事件影响下的业务持续性分析，建立空管技术保障系统扩展规划与选址决策理论与方法。首先，以系统导航、通信/监视设备覆盖的航路结构为基础，构建系统对应的空间网络模型，并提出新的介数、聚类系数等网络指标定义和测度，展开多元混合空管技术保障系统基于复杂网络理论的特征分析；然后，考虑不同突发事件类型和等级、飞行流量水平，建立相应的故障模型和风险指标体系，并采用复杂网络模型展开突发事件影响下的系统业务持续性分析；最后，针对系统既有和新增设备情况，建立突发事件风险评估测度、以及基于复杂空间网络模型的空管技术保障系统扩展规划模型，进而给出新增设备选址决策。课题成果为空管技术保障系统扩展规划提供了理论依据，对降低突发事件对空管系统保障能力的影响，保障空中交通持续安全具有现实意义。

为提高空管系统应对突发事件的能力，课题通过研究空管技术保障系统的复杂网络特征分析与建模、系统在突发事件影响下的业务持续性分析，建立空管技术保障系统扩展规划与选址决策理论与方法。首先，以系统导航、通信/监视设备覆盖的航路结构为基础，构建系统对应的空间网络模型，展开多元混合空管技术保障系统基于复杂网络理论的特征分析；然后，建立相应的故障模型和风险指标体系，并采用复杂网络模型展开突发事件影响下的系统业务持续性分析；最后，针对系统既有和新增设备情况，建立基于复杂空间网络模型的空管技术保障系统扩展规划模型，进而给出新增设备选址决策。研究结果表明：空管技术保障系统加权网络为小世界网络、无标度网络；网络聚集程度低；度值>3时服从幂律分布，度-度分布不表现出正相关或负相关；重要节点直接影响网络结构的稳定性，重要节点识别方法参考了度、介数等评价指标，可以用作空管技术保障系统突发事件风险评价指标；导航台设备网络对随机攻击鲁棒性最高；攻击数目在5-13个导航台节点时，节点介数攻击导致网络效率降低最快，对网络连通性破坏最大；提出的改进的社团检测方法，可以对网络当中空管技术保障能力较薄弱的区域进行更加精确的识别，为设备扩展规划预先选定区域；提出的空管监视设备选址的优化算法通过遗传进化可以逐步得到最优解。课题成果为空管技术保障系统扩展规划提供了理论依据，对降低突发事件对空管系统保障能力的影响，保障空中交通持续安全具有现实意义。