基于环境风险动态防控的城市危险废物物流系统设计与优化研究

Hazardous waste logistics plays a key role in the urban management problem of "environmental protection" and "public safety". The design and optimization of hazardous waste logistics is considered as the efficient way to reduce the urban environment pollution, and to enhance the ability of disaster avoidance, reduction and rescue. In this project, we especially focus on the dynamic prevention and control of environmental risks, applying diffusion model, multi-commodity flow formulation, multi-objective dynamic optimization and simulation to develop the theory and method in the field of optimization of urban hazardous waste logistics. In which, (1) the diffusion mechanism of the environmental risk as well as the corresponding dynamic assessment is developed in accordance with the characteristics of environment and urban network structure, also the environmental risk assessment is formulated; (2) Considering the nature of the city, we develop the model and methodology for the urban hazardous wastes logistics optimization based on the environmental risk dynamic prevention, and then the corresponding risk avoidance policy is proposed; (3) Figuring out the severely afflicted area and safe area, we develop the corresponding emergency model to control the existing impacts on the environment, where the risk control methodology is also improved. With the support of this project, the methodologies of environmental engineering are introduced to the management science and traffic transportation for the environmental risks diffusion analysis and simulation. Then, a new methodology, including the potential risks avoidance before incidents, the existing risks control and reduction after incidents, is proposed for the security and safety of the hazardous waste management. The related methodologies, plans and results can fulfill the theoretical and methodology system of urban hazardous wastes logistics optimization, and provide recommendations for the government to innovate the policies of disaster prevention, reduction and relief.

危险废物物流与“环境保护”和“公共安全”两大城市问题息息相关，优化设计危险废物物流系统是解决城市环境污染，提升防灾减灾救灾能力的重要途径。本项目特别注重环境风险的动态“防”与“控”，主要采用扩散模型、多商品流、多目标动态优化和仿真技术，研究城市危险废物物流系统的设计理论和优化方法。主要内容有：（1）基于城市路网结构，揭示环境风险的扩散过程和传播规律，并建立度量模型；（2）基于环境风险动态预防，建立符合城市属性的危险废物物流规划模型与优化方法，构建风险预警机制；（3）基于环境风险动态控制，确认城市路网的“重灾区”和“安全区”，建立危险废物物流系统的应急优化方法，完善风险控制机制。本项目拟融合环境、管理和交通运输学科的理论方法，阐明环境风险的动态扩散机理，从风险的“事前预防”和“事后控制”两个维度，完善城市危险废物物流系统优化的理论方法体系，为政府推行防灾减灾救灾体制机制改革提供决策支持

危险废物物流与“环境保护”和“公共安全”两大城市问题息息相关，优化设计危险废物物流系统是解决城市环境污染，提升防灾减灾救灾能力的重要途径。本项目特别注重了环境风险的动态“防”与“控”，主要采用扩散模型、多商品流建模、多目标动态优化等理论方法与技术，研究了城市危险废物物流系统的设计理论和优化方法。主要研究内容包括：（1）根据城市路网结构特征，针对不同的危险废物，揭示了环境风险的扩散过程和传播规律，并建立了13个风险度量模型；（2）基于环境风险的动态预防，建立了11个危险废物物流规划的多目标数学模型，协同优化了设施选址、路线设计等决策，针对模型的计算复杂度，分别设计了求解方法，为构建城市危险废物物流系统的风险预警机制提供方法借鉴；（3）基于环境风险的动态控制，确认了城市路网的“重灾区”和“安全区”，建立了5个危险废物物流的应急规划多目标优化模型，重点优化了应急设施选址、救援路径优化和物资调度等决策，针对模型的计算复杂度，分别设计了求解方法，完善了系统的风险控制机制。项目通过大量的实例、实验和测试，验证了新模型和方法的有效性，计算结果表明：（1）相较于传统风险度量模型，新建的环境风险度量模型融合了环境、管理和交通运输学科的理论方法，能够有效阐明环境风险动态扩散机理，量化危害的深度和广度；（2）相较于传统优化模型，项目新建的数学模型能够从风险的“事前预防”和“事后控制”两个维度，为城市危险废物物流系统提供有效的设施选址和车辆路径方案，优化结果能够分别降低至少27.27%的成本和32.72%的风险；（3）相较于常规的多目标优化方法，项目设计的多目标动态优化方法，能够在缩短至少79.53%的计算时间基础上，求解不同规模的优化问题，并且保有一定的计算稳定性和参数敏感性。项目的理论成果和实验数据可以在一定程度上丰富城市危险废物物流系统设计与优化的理论方法体系，为政府推行防灾减灾救灾体制机制改革提供决策支持。