中国水土资源利用与粮食生产的平衡关系定量分析与数字模拟

China is the most populous country in the world, and is also one of the largest agricultural nation. China's grain production and consumption changes will inevitably have significant influence on world food security. The cultivated land resources and water resources are the two major constraints affecting China’s grain production. China has a long history of the grain security problem induced by constraint of water and land resources. Although there were many studies on the balance relationship between regional land and water resources utilization and the grain production, they mainly focused on the problem at the national or the regional level. They were far from quantitative analyzing at different scales and more lack of systematic research..Based on the viewpoint of natural resources comprehensive management, this project tries to combine resources comprehensive theory, balance sheet method and the GIS technology to make a quantitative analysis of the balance relationship between land and water resources utilization and grain production in China. Taking 1 km * 1 km grid as the basic unit, this project attemps to set up field water balance models, soil nutrient balance models, land and water balance models, and resources utilization and grain production models to reveal the relationships between land and water resources utilization and grain production at different levels in China. Applying GIS technology and balance sheet method, this project then establishs a balance sheets system, including grain supply and demand sheet, water resources balance sheet, land resources balance sheet, and land and water balance sheet, to reflect the spatial and temporal characteristics of resources utilization and grain production over past 30 years in China. At last, this project quantitatively investigates the balance relationships of land and water resource utilization and grain production in different areas in China over past 30 years, and systematically simulates the possible scenarios of balance relationships between China’s water and land resources utilization and grain production in the future..This project can not only reveal the quantitative dynamic balance characteristics of the land and water resource utilization and grain production at different levels in China, but also quantitatively simulate future patters of land and water resource utilization and trends of grain supply and demand. The purposes of this research is to provide a scientific basis for regional utilization of water and land resources, and sustainable agricultural development.

中国基于水土资源约束的粮食安全问题由来已久，有关研究和相关成果主要集中在国家层面和大区尺度，零星而分散，远不能定量揭示不同地区水土资源利用与粮食生产的地域平衡特征。基于此，本项研究将把资源综合理论、平衡表方法与GIS技术相结合，以1km*1km栅格为基础、以分县/流域为基本研究单元，通过水土资源利用与粮食生产平衡关系分析，建立农田水量平衡模型、土壤养分平衡模型和水土资源平衡模型，以反映水土资源与粮食生产的平衡特征；建立水土资源利用与粮食生产相互关系模型，系统集成具有互联互动关系的区域水土资源利用与粮食生产平衡表，以揭示中国水土资源利用与粮食生产的地域规律性；在GIS支持下，实现由栅格到区域的尺度转换，综合集成中国水土资源利用与粮食生产平衡表系统，以定量分析和数字模拟不同地区水土资源利用与粮食生产的动态平衡与未来情景，试图为中国不同地区水土资源优化配置与农业可持续发展提供量化的科学依据。

“中国水土资源利用与粮食生产的平衡关系定量分析与数字模拟”项目，将资源综合理论、平衡表方法与GIS技术相结合，通过水土资源利用与粮食生产互动关系的系统分析，提出了一系列包括耕地资源平衡、气候资源平衡、水土资源平衡和农田养分平衡的水土资源利用与粮食生产互动关系的模型和方法，建立了一套中国水土资源利用与粮食生产互动关系的平衡表体系，发展了资源科学研究方法；以公里格网为基础，从分县、分地（市）、分省到全国，多尺度建立了中国水土资源利用与粮食生产平衡表系统，定量分析了2000-2015中国不同地区水土资源利用与粮食生产的相互关系，提出了基于粮食安全的中国水土资源可持续利用途径与策略，为区域水土资源优化配置及其高效利用提供了科学依据和决策支持。.“中国水土资源利用与粮食生产的平衡关系定量分析与数字模拟”项目，在国内外学术期刊发表论文42篇，其中SCI论文14篇；待出版《水土资源平衡研究的理论、方法与实践》和《中国粮食与耕地资源关系研究》专著2部；面向耕地资源利用与多熟种植制度的遥感快速监测与提取，申请了“高中低产田遥感检测软件”等软件著作权；建立了“中国水土资源利用与粮食生产平衡关系”计算机系统，实现了区域水土资源利用及其与粮食生产关系的量化分析与可视化展示；基于典型地区的案例分析，提交的区域水土资源利用与粮食安全等4份咨询报告得到相关部门的重视，支撑了区域发展战略和相关规划的制订；培养研究生14名，造就了一批从事资源利用与粮食安全领域研究的青年学者；开展了4次科普宣传工作，提高了公众对中国水土资源利用与粮食安全问题的认识。