龙卷风建模与地震区别的应急医学循证策略研究

We will use the Anylogic software owned by “Lab. Of GIS-DSS Military Health Service” to establish the tornado Anylogic model, and combined with the second survey, the analysis of six aspects of distinction between tornado and earthquake will be made. We will establish three agent-based models of the occurrence of the injured population, deployment of medical rescue forces and hospital treatment, one discrete event model of medical evacuation, one system dynamics model of organization and command, and a DEA of allocation efficiency. We will testify the model, reveal the evolution discipline of tornado, and determine the six “targets” of the distinction between tornado and earthquake. This study will put forward the strategies of casualty, medical evacuation and hospital treatment in the aspect of emergency medicine, and propose the strategies of organization and command, deployment of medical rescue forces and allocation efficiency in the aspect of evidence-based (management) strategy. We will also rule out principles for rescue process, data support and distinction research. This study aims to improve the rescue efficiency of tornado, and make up for gaps in the tornado research field in China.

本研究利用“卫勤决策支持”重点实验室购买的Anylogic软件，首次构建龙卷风Anylogic模型，并结合二次调研，展开龙卷风与地震的6个区别点研究。构建伤病员发生、力量部署、院内救治3个智能体模型，医疗后送离散事件模型，组织指挥系统动力学模型，配置效率DEA评估。实施模型验证，揭示龙卷风演化规律，筛选龙卷风与地震6个区别的干预“靶点”。提出基于应急医学龙卷风伤病员发生、医疗后送和院内救治的3个策略；提出基于循证（管理）龙卷风组织指挥、力量部署和配置效率的3个策略；提出救援流程、数据支撑和区别研究的原则。本研究旨在提高龙卷风救援效率，弥补国内龙卷风研究的空白。

研究从龙卷风应急医疗救援的角度出发，针对龙卷风伤员创伤特征及创伤发生影响因素与救治过程，对盐城、开原、赤峰发生的龙卷风灾情现况、评估与影响因素进行调查，收集相关数据，构建了龙卷风伤员数据库，并开展了相应的描述性和分析性统计学分析与研究。基于盐城、赤峰、开原龙卷风调研，构建我国龙卷风伤员和灾民两类本底数据，分析龙卷风创伤伤情特征、灾民创伤发生影响因素；构建基于AnyLogic的龙卷风伤员创伤发生多主体模型；开展模型和干预实验，寻找减少龙卷风创伤发生的干预靶点，为龙卷风灾民创伤预防提供政策建议；建立龙卷风伤病员医疗后送多主体模型，基于GIS系统、多主体理论建模方法，设置5类行为主体，建立龙卷风伤病员医疗后送模型，实现了主体行为与环境的模拟、后送时间变化趋势定量观测，理清龙卷风灾害伤病员医疗后送流程以及机理；实施龙卷风伤病员医疗后送实证模拟研究，定量模拟盐城、开原2次龙卷风灾害伤病员医疗后送流程，探明其机理以及演化规律，验证模型的稳定性；针对提高医疗后送效率进行3类政策干预实验，定量评价3类干预方案的实际效果，寻找缩短医疗后送时间的关键靶点，制定合理政策建议。