贸易便利化福利效应的微观机理、实证检验与政策设计：基于异质企业贸易模型的研究

The recently signed Bali package by WTO members indicates that the time of global trade facilitation is coming. Although some literatures have studied the welfare effects of trade facilitation from a macro perspective, but the theoretical analysis in depth is very rare.The project will be constructed as four progressive parts: (1) Enriches the connotation of trade facilitation and proposes a new method of measuring trade facilitation; (2) based on the heterogeneous firms trade model, from the micro-level reveals the mechanism of how trade facilitation affecting the welfare through firms' self-selection mechanism and resources reallocation in industry;(3) from the industry level analyzes the mechanism of how trade facilitation affecting consumers'and producers' welfare by combining heterogeneous firms model with computable partial equilibrium model; (4)from the macro-level tests empirically the effects of trade facilitation on welfare such as GDP, wages etc. by turning from the partial equilibrium model to the micro-based general equilibrium model. The project deepens the relevant study to the firm level and integrates theoretical and empirical research from both the macro-level and micro-level, which can provide theoretical and practical basis for China to improve the efficiency of resource allocation and the implementation of the opening-up strategy of mutual benefit.

WTO近期签署的"巴厘一揽子协定"预示全球贸易便利化时代即将到来。尽管部分已有文献从宏观视角实证分析了国际贸易便利化的福利效应，但深入的理论研究缺乏。本项目研究拟从四个层次推进：（1）界定国内贸易便利化内涵与外延，设计测度国内与国际贸易便利化指数的新方法；（2）将贸易便利化指数变量植入异质企业贸易模型，从微观层面深入揭示贸易便利化通过企业自我选择机制提高资源配置效率的机理；（3）综合利用异质企业贸易模型与新贸易理论，构建具有微观基础的可计算局部均衡模型，从行业层面准确刻画贸易便利化对生产者与消费者福利的影响；（4）将局部均衡模型拓展为一般均衡模型，克服经典CGE模型的不足，从宏观层面考察贸易便利化对GDP等社会福利的影响。 本项目以期突破已有文献在研究对象与研究视角的局限性，实现微观与宏观、理论与实证的有机结合，为中国如何通过贸易便利化提高资源配置效率与社会福利水平提供理论与现实依据。

近年来贸易便利化问题受到很多国家和政府的重视，关于其潜在的经济与福利影响也引起了众多专家学者的关注。尽管部分专家学者从宏观视角实证了贸易便利化的福利影响，但是深入的理论分析十分鲜见。本项目重点从四个不同层次对贸易便利化的福利影响进行了深入研究：（1）在拓展贸易便利化内涵的基础上构建国内与国际贸易便利化指标体系，并提出测度贸易便利化指数的新方法。（2）将贸易便利化指数变量植入异质性企业贸易模型，从微观层面深入揭示国内与国际贸易便利化通过企业自我选择机制，促进资源在行业内优化配置的机理。（3）再将异质性企业贸易模型与可计算局部均衡模型进行对接，从行业层面刻画贸易便利化对生产者与消费者福利的影响。（4）最后将局部均衡模型拓展为更加符合现实情境的一般均衡模型，从宏观层面考察贸易便利化对GDP、工资水平等社会福利的影响。 .本项目将相关研究推进到企业层面，实现了微观机理与宏观实证的有机结合，可为中国如何通过贸易便利化提高资源配置效率、培养国际竞争新优势提供理论与实证依据。