变化环境下流域尺度水资源调控复杂多要素响应机理研究

According to IPCC5, global warming is an indisputable fact. As one of the most sensitive elements, hydrological cycle is becoming more and more complicated in responding to climate change owing to its large scale, together with regional of human activities and basin-wide of development and utilization of water resources. This study took Yellow River as a typical example, attempting to systematically study its response to these changes during water resources exploitation and use. The research was launched from three levels i.e. supplement, demand and regulation of water resources. Firstly, from the perspective of supplement, it revealed the variation characteristics of water by analyzing hydrological and meteorological elements, reconstructing and predicting runoff series in different scenarios via coupling climate model and large scale distributed hydrological model. Secondly, in view of demand, emphasis was focused on agriculture water demand response to different climate situations. Thirdly, in order to expose reservoir group scheduling adaptability to the environment changes, it set up reservoir group of scheduling model by taking irrigation into consideration, and used the results of water supplement and demand as model driven data, established evaluation index system and put forward reasonable reservoir operation mode ultimately. This study could provide scientific direction for Yellow River basin water resources planning and regulation in changing environment.

IPCC5报告表明，全球变暖是毋庸置疑的事实。水循环对气候变化尤为敏感，而气候变化的大尺度性、人类活动的区域性、水资源开发利用的流域性导致了水循环对环境变化响应的复杂性。为揭示并适应这一复杂性，本研究以黄河流域这一水资源开发利用的典型流域为研究对象，从流域尺度分供水侧、需水侧、调控侧三个层次，系统研究水资源开发利用对环境变化的响应。在供水侧，分析水文气象要素在流域尺度下的变异特性，耦合气候模型与大尺度分布式水文模型，重构和预测不同情境下的径流序列，揭示变化环境下水资源在流域尺度下的演变规律；在需水侧，重点分析不同气候情境下农业需水对环境变化的响应；在调控侧，构建流域水库群多目标联合调度模型，以供、需水侧研究成果作为模型数据驱动，构建评价指标，揭示水库群调控对环境变化的响应，提出合理的水库群适应性调控方式。研究成果可为变化环境下黄河流域水资源规划、调控提供借鉴。

在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下，水资源的供给和需求都发生了变化。水库调度作为实现河川径流时空重新分配、解决水资源供需矛盾的重要途径，如何适应变化环境下的水资源供需变化是此次研究的关注点所在。本研究从流域尺度水资源管理系统中供水侧、需水侧与调控侧三个层次出发，系统研究各个环节对环境变化的响应，并量化了多重不确定性因素对各个环节结果的影响。供水侧，挖掘了气候变化和人类活动对径流影响，提出了ARMA-GARCH模型与Partial Copula函数相耦合的多变量相依结构变异诊断方法，揭示了黄河流域水文-气象要素相依关系变异特征；拟定多种气候变化情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5），采用统计降尺度SDSM等方法预测了黄河流域未来气候变化情况，驱动涵盖分布式、集总式的多个流域水文模型，预测并分析了不同情景下流域水资源时空变化特征；提出了基于Bootstrap法的Budyko模型参数不确定性对流域水资源评估的影响框架，开发了水文模型参数与模型结构不确定性量化方法体系。需水侧，构建了基于AquaCrop模型与双作物系数法的黄河流域（春、冬）小麦、（春、夏）玉米、水稻的灌溉需水计算模型，预测了黄河流域不同数据来源下未来RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种情景下作物灌溉需水量，分析了气候模式与气候情景不确定性对流域灌溉需水的影响。调控侧，构建了黄河流域（梯级）水库优化调度模型，以供、需侧的预测结果为输入，驱动调度模型，通过多方案分析比较，揭示了变化环境对流域水资源管理系统调控侧的影响，获取了未来不同阶段下梯级水库群的适应性调度规则；以黄河流域典型流域为例，分析了水文模型参数不确定性与降水过程不确定性因素在水库适应性调度系统中的传播过程，提出了考虑水资源供需过程关联性与不确定性的水库优化调度算法。研究成果可为变化环境下黄河流域水资源规划、调控提供借鉴。