耐多药结核病区域景观耦合网络动力学模型和尺度效应

MDR-TB is one of the most challenges for control and prevention on Tuberculosis (TB) which is one of the world's deadliest diseases. Even though the floating population integrates TB issues together nationwide or worldwide, the previous study on TB dynamic models did not incorporate social network which is actually main transmission of TB. This proposal will conduct investigation on a network dynamics model of MDR-TB coupling local landscape. By creating probability model between evolution of TB and MDR-TB, creating evolution of floating population and creating MDR-TB network dynamics model coupling by local landscape, we aim to calculate MDR-TB incidence and the basic reproduction number, analyze disease-free equilibrium and stability of model, optimize policies of TB control and prevention, predict epidemic of MDR-TB and TB and evaluate MDR-TB disease burden. The three scientific questions we try to answer in this study include: ：①contribution of the floating population on MDR-TB and TB. ② theory on stability of model. ③optimization of policies on TB control and prevention. The results of the proposal we pose here will improve the knowledge about network dynamics model of infectious diseases. We also anticipate to apply the stable theory of analysis of this model will to the general mixed systems.

结核病是全球由单一因素致死最多的疾病，耐多药结核病（MDR-TB）是当前结核病防控最挑战的任务，流动人口使全国乃至全球结核病防控成为相互关联的一体，但目前结核病理论模型研究缺乏考虑社会网络结构。本项目将开展由流动人口耦合的MDR-TB网络动力学模型研究，通过构建景观演变与结核菌株突变至MDR-TB的概率模型，流动人口网络动力学模型和MDR-TB景观网络动力学模型，探索区域景观演变诱发的MDR-TB发生率，计算网络模型的基本再生数和无病平衡点，解析模型的稳定性、分支和周期解等动力学性态，优选结核病防控策略，预测MDR-TB和结核病疫情，评估结核病负担。拟解决三个关键科学问题①流动人口对MDR-TB的贡献；②模型稳定性分析理论；③结核病防控策略尺度的优化。项目研究成果不仅能补充和丰富我国网络传染病动力学模型研究内容， 预期模型稳定性分析可优化普适性混合动态系统稳定性理论。

结核病是全球由单一因素致死最多的疾病，耐多药结核病（MDR-TB）是当前结核病防控最挑战的任务，流动人口使全国乃至全球结核病防控成为相互关联的一体。本项目基于文献数据和监测数据从模型建立和动力学分析等方面开展针对MDR-TB分布、传播、控制策略等研究，分析结核病耐药的时间趋势和治疗转归，预测耐药结核病的流行规律和疾病负担，评估流动人口在沿社会接触网络传播的MDR-TB的发病中的作用，评估影响耐药结核病传播、控制的防控策略。在项目资助下研究成果完成预期指标，培养博士3名，硕士6名，正式发表学术论文10篇（6篇SCI，4篇中文核心）。