鄱阳湖区农户水旱灾害脆弱性与可持续生计研究

Flood-drought disaster was one of the most important reasons for long low-level development and rural poverty in the Poyang Lake Region. Consequently, implementing an effective disaster management, as well as long strategy on disaster prevention and alleviation is the key for anti-poverty and socio-economical sustainable development in the region. Previous national and international studies suggested that vulnerability analysis and sustainable livelihood framework could provide effective scheme for disaster risk alleviation and anti-poverty. In this study, characteristics of flood-drought disaster in the Poyang Lake Region and associated effects on farmer's livelihood will be firstly analyzed. Subsequently, based on the advanced idea of vulnerability analysis and sustainable livelihood research, after taking the farmer's exposure, sensitivity, responsibility and restoration capability of flood-drought disaster risk into account, the characteristics of farmer's vulnerability in response to flood-drought disaster will be analyzed and assessed with composite index and the aggressive-cross-evaluation model in DEA, as well as spatial auto-correlation analysis. Moreover, farm's sustainable livelihood framework model based on various vulnerability level will be constructed. In the model,vulnerable node and key factors will be analyzed and revealed. Additionally, effective strategies and measures on farmer's vulnerability alleviation and livelihood improvments will be put forward. The results of this study will not only contribute to the disaster management, but provide scientific basis on sustainable development policies and measures decision for the local government.

水旱灾害是鄱阳湖区长期发展滞后及农村贫困的重要原因，有效进行防灾减灾，实施长效的灾害管理战略，是湖区脱贫、实现可持续发展的关键着力点。研究表明，脆弱性分析方法及可持续生计分析模型在降低灾害风险、摆脱贫困方面提供了有效的解决方案。本研究在分析湖区水旱灾害发生特征及其对农户生计影响的基础上，借鉴国际上关于脆弱性分析和可持续生计方法的前沿学术思想及研究思路，综合湖区农户对水旱灾害风险的暴露性、敏感性、应对能力及恢复力，运用综合指数法、DEA的对抗交叉评价法（ACE）、空间自相关等方法，分析和评价农户水旱灾害脆弱性及其空间组合特征；构建基于不同脆弱性水平下的湖区农户可持续生计分析模型；揭示湖区农户水旱灾害脆弱性与可持续生计的主要影响因素及其作用机制，针对性地提出降低农户脆弱性、增进生计能力、提升生计水平的可持续生计战略或措施。为湖区灾害管理及可持续发展政策、措施的制定和调整提供参考依据。

本项目基于脆弱性分析方法与可持续生计研究框架，分析鄱阳湖区水旱灾害发生过程及规律，阐明湖区农户水旱灾害脆弱性特征，揭示脆弱性背景下农户可持续生计的主要影响因素及作用机制，并针对性地提出湖区农户降低脆弱性、增进生计能力、提升生计水平的可持续生计策略。主要结论如下：.（1）鄱阳湖区水旱灾害在时间序列上呈现周期性交替发生的变化规律，2000年以前，洪涝灾害发生数量呈波浪式上升，较大洪水和大洪水出现频率呈逐渐增加的趋势，其平均增加速度分别为0.42a/100a和0.66a/100a，2000年以后，因三峡大坝等因素的影响，湖区河湖多出现持续低水位情形。.（2）在入户问卷调查基础上，计算得到湖区农户脆弱性指数均值为0.5951，最小值为0.2816，最大值达1.1686，按脆弱性低、中、高、极高四个等级，所调查的农户占比分别为9.04%、41.75%、43.47%和5.74%，脆弱性水平总体较高。.（3）农户适应能力对农户水灾脆弱性影响大于农户的易感性；在单项指标中对农户水灾脆弱性指数影响最大的因素是政治活动参与度，其次为家庭非农收入比重。.（4）拥有较高的文化水平和劳动能力的农户家庭脆弱性指数相对较低，而农户家庭的人口数量与男性人口的比例对水灾脆弱性的影响并不显著。.（5）调查农户中，生计资本总指数为0~0.2的农户占8.09%，在0.2~0.4之间占到51.86%，在0.4~0.6间的为37.00%，大于0.6的仅占3.05%。鄱阳湖区农户生计总体水平较低。.（6）按照5种家庭结构类型，农户生计资本指数由大到小依次为H3（有成年劳动力和孩子没有老人的农户）＞H2（只有成年劳动力）＞H4（有成年劳动力、孩子和老人）＞H1（有老人和成年劳动力没有孩子的农户）＞H5（只有老人）。.（7）家庭结构与农户不同生计收的多元回归分析显示，H2、H3、H4类家庭结构对家庭总收入具有显著正向作用，H1类和H5类具有显著负向作用；H1、H2家庭结构对农业收入具有显著正向影响，H3、H4 对农业收入具有显著负向影响；H2类、H3类和H4类家庭结构对外出务工收入具有显著的正向影响；家庭结构 H1和H5对做生意收入具有显著负向影响。